Threat to oil tankers in Middle East worst since start of Iran war, analysts say

The danger to oil-carrying ships in the Middle East has reached its highest point since the beginning of the Iran war, according to experts, following a series of assaults on another vital regional route.

This warning comes after multiple attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, an alternative shipping lane that some tankers had been utilizing since Iran obstructed the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has refuted Donald Trump's assertion that it was engaged in discussions with the U.S. regarding the reopening of the strait, but confirmed it was in talks with Oman about ensuring the security of the shipping lane.

Matthew Wright, an analyst at the ship-tracking firm Kpler, stated, "In terms of threat to the trade of crude, we're at the worst period that we've been in since this since this crisis began."

According to Kpler, the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz was only eight on Sunday and eleven on Saturday, a stark contrast to over 100 per day before the war commenced.

A temporary peace agreement with the U.S. in early June led to an increase in traffic, but the resumption of hostilities between the two nations approximately a month later has significantly reduced activity.

Many ships have been "going dark" when traversing the strait, meaning they deactivate their transponders to evade detection.

For much of the war, some ships transporting oil from Saudi Arabia had instead used an alternative shipping lane in the Red Sea, situated between the kingdom and West Africa.

However, a recent surge of attacks by Yemen's Houthi fighters on Saudi tankers using this alternative waterway has further escalated the risks.

The Iranian-backed Houthi militia declared what it termed a blockade on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports on July 20, and the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported several attacks on ships in the past week.

Wright commented, "Not only is the ongoing situation in the Strait of Hormuz constraining oil flows, but now a big factor that was helping to balance the market is now also under threat. It's a problem stacked on top of a problem."

Tim Wilkins, managing director of Intertanko, a trade organization representing tanker owners, stated that the industry is "facing a broadening, deteriorating, and increasingly complex security situation."

He added, "We now have the high-risk area going up to Saudi Arabian waters and extending into parts of the Red Sea. So that's having another impact on the market, on freedom of navigation as well."

Kpler data indicates that 28 commodity vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb strait on Saturday, with six of them having their transponders turned off, suggesting an attempt to avoid detection.

Not all vessels are deterred from passing through, as the Houthi threat is specifically aimed at Saudi shipping, with the total number of transits remaining at approximately 50% of pre-attack levels.

However, the number of ships loading crude oil for export to Asia passing through has fallen to about four per day, Kpler noted, marking the lowest point since the war began.

A spokesperson for Hapag-Lloyd, the global shipping giant, confirmed that some of its vessels were still using the Red Sea but stated that it would "monitor developments closely and will adjust the network if circumstances change."

The spokesperson added, "If the Strait of Hormuz reopened, most ships could probably leave the region fairly quickly. However, restoring normal cargo flows would take much longer. Services have been suspended and ships redeployed elsewhere, so a return to normal flows would most likely take three to four months."

Despite discussions with Oman, Iran has stated that no imminent deal would reopen the strait to normal traffic.

Its foreign ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baqaei, said any agreement would not lift the current restrictions while U.S. "aggression" persisted.

Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, another ship-tracking company, remarked that the fighting had taken the shipping industry "back to square one" and that things were in "a terrible state, regardless of which shipping type you're looking at."

He concluded, "The alternatives for getting cargo, whether that's hydrocarbons or container shipping, are really not great… it is really still troubling times with no clarity and no change of fortunes within sight."