Bowen: Plan for Hamas to disarm faces big obstacles, yet it offers rare hope for Gaza

While fraught with potential pitfalls, a proposed plan for Hamas to disarm offers a rare glimmer of hope for Gaza. Hamas has never before consented to disarm, making this a potentially pivotal moment for diplomatic progress if handled with extreme care.

At the core of this new proposal is a trade-off: Hamas would relinquish its weapons, and Israel would withdraw from the 70% of Gaza it currently occupies. This seemingly straightforward exchange is, in reality, immensely complicated by the intricate political landscape, ongoing conflict, profound distrust, the loss of thousands of lives, and the widespread destruction across Gaza.

Life for over 2 million Palestinian civilians in Gaza is catastrophic, with most living in desperate conditions. Israel has destroyed their homes and livelihoods. According to the Hamas-run health ministry, whose figures the UN considers reliable, Israel has killed over 70,000 Palestinians during the war and more than 1,000 since the ceasefire. UNICEF reports that over 20,000 children have been killed by Israel since October 7, 2023, including at least 1,000 infants among the dead and wounded.

Much of Gaza lies in ruins, not solely due to Israel Defense Forces (IDF) military operations. There has also been an organized, officially sanctioned effort to dismantle communities and infrastructure, with Israeli civilian demolition contractors hired to complete the destruction initiated by IDF bombs. Many Palestinians believe Israel aims to force them out by making life unbearable. Leaders and senior officials in Jordan and Egypt also suspect that powerful figures within the Israeli government are working to create conditions for the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians, likely across their borders.

From the Israeli perspective, a strong sentiment exists among the approximately 80% Jewish majority that Hamas will remain a deadly threat until it is completely disarmed and stripped of all power. On October 7, 2023, Hamas and other Palestinians attacked Israel, killing nearly 1,200 people, roughly two-thirds of whom were civilians, including children, and taking 251 hostages into Gaza. Many Israelis believe Hamas would repeat such an attack if given the opportunity.

Hamas has reportedly agreed to disarm following Trump's announcement of a "Board of Peace" plan, though Israel has yet to comment. The diplomatic process that led to this agreement with Hamas is not isolated; its success hinges on broader factors.

Israel faces a general election at the end of October, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trailing in polls. He is fighting not only for his political career and legacy but potentially for his freedom, as his long-running corruption trial, which could result in a jail sentence, has slowed while he remains in office. This would change if he lost power. Netanyahu is under pressure both domestically and internationally. At home, he wants to avoid accusations from political opponents of being soft on Hamas. Internationally, his primary concern is Washington D.C.

The US also has looming midterm elections in November. President Donald Trump, unable to secure a victory in the war on Iran, needs one in Gaza. A significant loss for Trump's Republican party would diminish his power. Trump would likely blame Netanyahu if he perceives him as obstructing the victory he desires and needs. Netanyahu has often boasted to the Israeli electorate that he can manage Americans, including Trump, better than his rivals. A pre-election day tirade from Trump in Israel would undermine this claim. Netanyahu, an expert at stalling when faced with major challenges, will likely try to balance domestic and Oval Office pressures until election day.

Hamas is also under immense pressure. Israel has killed most of its senior leaders and thousands of its fighters, and the IDF continues to assassinate senior Hamas figures when opportunities arise. As of this writing, the IDF reported killing a commander of a Palestinian militia accused of taking hostages on October 7, 2023. Many Palestinians blame Hamas for the consequences of its October 7 attack. Hamas also faces challenges from powerful families and militias funded and backed by Israel.

Hamas is attempting to rebuild grassroots support. As BBC Gaza correspondent Rushdi Abu Alouf explained, "For months, Hamas increasingly shifted part of its focus back to social and political outreach, expanding Quran memorisation programmes and charitable activities aimed at children, teenagers and young people, while taking advantage of the severe humanitarian crisis and the growing dependence of so many families on aid." Khalil al Hayya, the newly confirmed political leader of Hamas, was crucial in the decision to accept the framework, with significant diplomatic efforts from Egypt and Turkey.

Hamas's concessions are linked to Israel's agreement to withdraw from Gaza. Israel has previously stated that full Hamas disarmament is a precondition for withdrawal.

While Hamas is diminished, it remains a significant player. Only a step-by-step agreement, starting small and building confidence, has a chance of success. Trump's sustained engagement will be crucial, which is uncertain given a potential war with Iran and numerous other global challenges. Maintaining this process will require continuous diplomatic engagement and avoiding sudden shocks that could derail mediation.

This will be difficult, as the occupied West Bank is on the brink of an even more severe outbreak of violence. ACLED, a group monitoring armed conflict, reports that 2026 is on track to be the most violent year in the West Bank since it began monitoring the territory a decade ago. Jewish settlers, with the IDF's permission and encouragement from extremists in the Netanyahu government, have been attacking and sometimes killing Palestinians and driving them off their land. Palestinians have been organizing to resist. Some critics of Netanyahu believe he desires a major crisis in the West Bank to justify a harsh response before the elections and alleviate pressure to withdraw from Gaza.

Netanyahu and prominent ministers in his cabinet have repeatedly stated that a Palestinian state will never exist. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich is committing the government to decisions aimed at increasing Jewish settlement and eliminating the prospects of an independent Palestine. Smotrich, an extreme religious nationalist, has been sanctioned by major Western countries and banned from entering the UK, France, other leading European nations, Australia, and New Zealand. Israel condemned these decisions as antisemitic.

A process that fails to offer Palestinians a political horizon and a path to self-determination will ultimately fail, condemning another generation to lives dominated by conflict. Diplomatic failure would benefit neither Palestinians nor Israelis, instead empowering those on both sides who believe their conflict can only be resolved by defeating their enemy.

If the Hamas disarmament plan holds, it could mark the first credible step toward ending the Gaza war. Meanwhile, Israel is constructing new land barriers in Gaza and displacing families.