Will Patriot systems put an end to Russia's winter dominance?

Can Patriot systems put an end to Russia's winter dominance?

While Russia has tried to disable Ukraine's energy system in past winters, this year Kiev may not be limited to protecting its own skies. Ukraine is seeking to reduce its adversary's offensive capabilities by targeting Russian energy infrastructure and missile production facilities. At the same time, Washington has not yet made a final decision on the issue of providing Patriot systems to Kiev.

Shuhrat Rasul noted that there is talk that the United States will supply Patriot missiles to Ukraine, but it is not yet known when and in what quantity this assistance will arrive. Given the frequent changes in the position of the Trump administration, it is difficult to expect a clear decision from Washington. However, assistance may also come from other sources. For example, Poland has announced its readiness to provide Ukraine with its Patriot air defense systems. Germany is also considering the issue of providing Patriot systems to Ukraine.

The Patriot system is important not as an offensive weapon, but as an air defense tool. In particular, PAC-3 missiles are capable of intercepting some ballistic missiles used by Russia.

President Zelensky also stressed the need to strengthen air defense, saying that the delivery of additional Patriot systems would significantly increase the ability to protect the sky. If Ukraine has enough of such systems, it can significantly reduce the effectiveness of Russian missile attacks. But there is also the question of whether Russia itself will have enough missiles for the winter campaign.

On August 15, reports spread that Ukrainian Flamingo missiles hit a key industrial facility in the Russian city of Samara. The company's activities are related to the production of products for missile and space programs. The warhead of the Flamingo missile is said to weigh about 1,150 kilograms. Earlier, there were reports that a plant in Voronezh, which produces important components for the missile industry, was also hit. If such attacks continue, the pressure on Russia’s missile production capacity could increase.

But whether Russia’s missile stockpiles and production capacity will be sufficient to sustain a winter campaign is a separate issue. For Ukraine, there is another winter problem: energy. For example, the city of Kherson on the Dnieper River is experiencing power outages due to Russian strikes during the winter. Hundreds of heating stations and generators have been set up in the city to help residents. At these stations, people can drink hot tea and coffee, charge their phones, and temporarily stay warm until the power supply is restored.

European countries and other partners are helping to create such infrastructure. Similar stations have been set up in other Ukrainian cities, including Kiev.

Now the main question for Russia is: how quickly can it create a similar infrastructure for the people of Moscow if Ukraine inflicts large-scale attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure during the winter?! It is not easy to provide thousands, even tens of thousands of generators, heating points and other necessary equipment in a short time. Therefore, the coming winter may turn into not only battles on the front lines, but also a test of the energy, air defense and missile production capabilities of the two countries.

According to Oybek Sirojov, it is also necessary to explain Zelensky's statement that "if 5 or 10 percent of the Patriot missiles in the US stockpile are transferred to Ukraine, our ability to combat Russia's ballistic missile potential will significantly increase." According to information, the US produces about 65 Patriot missiles per month. This means about 750-800 missiles per year. However, the main problem for the US now is to replenish existing stocks.

Against the backdrop of recent tensions and military operations in the Persian Gulf, information has appeared about the depletion of some US missile stocks. Therefore, Washington should first of all restore its stocks, and secondly, deliver orders under previously concluded contracts.

According to military experts, the United States may face serious restrictions on the supply of additional Patriot missiles to Ukraine. If we are talking about allocating 5% of the annual US production to Ukraine, this is about 40-50 missiles. However, there is another important aspect here: Russia has the ability to produce about 100 ballistic missiles per month. In addition, there is the possibility of using North Korean missiles as part of military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang.

Therefore, it is not enough to look at the issue only from the point of view of Patriot missiles themselves. Russia's ability to strike with hundreds of missiles per month, additional missiles being received from North Korea, and Ukraine's own air defense systems must be assessed together. From this point of view, the real ratio between the missile capabilities of Russia and Ukraine is also in question. In particular, how many ballistic missiles Russia will produce during the winter campaign and how many of them Ukraine will be able to intercept using systems such as Patriot requires a separate analysis.