Why the King's Caribbean tour could be 'biggest risk of his reign'

Why the King’s Caribbean tour could be the “biggest risk of his reign”

Royal tours are unpredictable creatures.

The planning is painstaking and begins months, sometimes years, in advance, yet there is always an element of danger.

King Charles III’s trip to the Caribbean, which begins on Tuesday, will take him to three countries in nine days: the Bahamas, Guyana, and then Antigua and Barbuda for the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (Chogm).

It also places him squarely in the middle of the debate over reparations - compensation from countries involved in the slave trade - as well as questions about whether the King should apologise for the UK’s role in what he has previously called an “appalling atrocity” that leaves an “indelible stain” on history.

“This is the biggest risk of his reign so far with so much just outside of his control,” said author and historian Sir Anthony Seldon. “Questions about slavery, reparations and apologies mean the moral integrity of the monarchy is being questioned.”

The King will deliver three major speeches during the Caribbean visit and will follow government advice not to make an official apology for Britain’s role in the transatlantic slave trade.

A senior royal aide said the King would “not shy away from the darkest days of our past” but emphasised that decisions on apologies and reparations were matters for government.

The current Burnham administration, like those before it, will not pay reparations.

Buckingham Palace says recognition of the wrongs of the past will be woven into the King’s programme in all three countries.

But apologies, reparations and republicanism are fertile ground for campaigners, and protests are expected.

That is the reality for the King and Buckingham Palace, and they are prepared for it.

Those involved in planning the trip see protests as part of the open debate in the region, and security arrangements include the possibility of them.

Also lingering in the minds of the Royal Household will be memories of the last senior royal tour of the Caribbean in early 2022.

Then, as the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge, William and Catherine faced criticism over the optics of the visit - images of the royal couple reaching out to touch the outstretched hands of Jamaican children through a wire fence looked awkward. Events intended as tributes to earlier royal visits seemed outdated. Protests also led to the cancellation of part of the schedule.

Everything will have been done to avoid those kinds of mistakes on the 2026 Caribbean tour.

The leaders of the Bahamas, Guyana and Antigua and Barbuda will celebrate the King and his work in protecting rainforests, building cultural links and strengthening ties around trade, energy and agriculture.

But they do so against a backdrop of change.

The leaders of all three countries have expressed support for reparatory justice.

In Antigua and Barbuda and the Bahamas, where the King is head of state, support for becoming a republic is significant.

Elected officials in the former no longer have to swear allegiance to the King, ending a 40-year tradition of pledging loyalty to the monarch.

“He pulled off an extraordinary triumph with President Trump in his US visit earlier this year and stood up to him and put him in his place in a way that no leader has done - while not incurring his wrath,” said Sir Anthony. “If he can deal with the delicate nature of this trip for him personally, for the British monarchy, and the future of the Commonwealth, it could be an enormous success.”

Timing matters for royal tours too.

This Caribbean trip must cut through a sea of royal distractions.

The King has spent much of the past three months in Scotland, where he is based during the summer.

It should have been a quieter period in the royal calendar, but the opposite has been true.

The surprise return of the Duke and Duchess of Sussex to the UK has been noisy. The amount of coverage Harry and Meghan receive is unsettling and, at times, irritating for the Royal Family.

The King’s youngest son has not yet seen his father in person, though they are said to have spoken.

Then came Earl Spencer, the King’s former brother-in-law, with his memoir, Swan Song, criticising the King’s response to the death of Diana, Princess of Wales. It prompted a strong response from the Palace.

And in recent days, the serious claims made about Meghan’s father, Thomas Markle, have drawn his daughter into a complicated story involving global police forces, sexual abuse allegations and further family trauma.

A successful and high-impact Caribbean tour would be a chance to shift attention.

But if royal stories at home are running hot, it can be difficult to focus minds on the King’s engagements more than four thousand miles (6,437km) away.

Former Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who has strong family ties to the Caribbean, has accompanied the King on several trips outside the UK.

“He is our head of state. He is amongst some of the most recognisable figures in the world. For a small country like Guyana, the validation of a state visit is huge,” said the Tottenham MP, whose father came to the UK from what was then British Guiana and who also has relatives in Antigua and Barbuda. “My mother would forever recall the Queen’s visit in 1996.”

But there was also an acknowledgement of the risks of a royal tour.

“Knowing Guyana, Antigua and Barbuda as well as I do, he will be overwhelmingly received positively,” Lammy said. “But these are lively democracies in which of course there will be some dissent.”

A transatlantic flight, three countries in nine days and about 36 separate engagements when you are nearing your 78th birthday is an intense schedule. It is also a reminder that the King is still living with a cancer diagnosis and receiving regular treatment. Buckingham Palace has repeated its position that he is on a “positive trajectory”.

Queen Camilla will accompany the King only on the Antigua and Barbuda leg of the visit for Chogm and several other engagements, including some linked to her own interests - literacy and supporting efforts to end violence against women and girls.

The Queen, who will be 80 next July, is known to find the pace and hot conditions of some royal tours exhausting.

This is a trip with possible pitfalls, but also the chance of a major reward for the King.

“The King can be an extraordinarily empathetic and in tune figure,” Sir Anthony said.

“He could play a blinder here.”