Ukraine's counteroffensive and Russia's retaliatory strikes: what is happening on the front line?

Ukraine's counteroffensive and Russia's retaliatory strikes: what is happening on the front line?

- What form are the mutual attacks of the parties taking in the Russia-Ukraine war?

On October 14, a representative of the Third Army Corps of Ukraine announced the successful completion of the autumn phase of Operation "Vivaldi". According to him, the Ukrainian army reclaimed 277 square kilometers of territory and 16 settlements from Russia. Russia has incorporated four regions of Ukraine into its constitution. However, not all territories declared as Russian on paper are actually under its control. Vladimir Putin's main demand is related to the Donbas: Russia must capture this territory or Ukraine must hand it over, only then can the war end.

Ukraine, fundamentally opposing the surrender of the Donbas, is mobilizing all its capabilities and resources specifically in this direction. This means that the battles in the Donbas, particularly around Lyman, are considered one of the most crucial points of the war for both Russia and Ukraine. The 16 settlements reported to have been reclaimed are notable in that Ukraine, despite being exhausted, having limited military resources, and facing uncertainties regarding US aid, is managing to reclaim certain territories from Russia.

One of the key features of today's war is pressure through escalation. On the front line, neither side is able to achieve a decisive advantage. Ukraine cannot quickly reclaim all the occupied territories, while Russia is struggling to fully capture the remainder of the Donbas. In such a situation, the parties are trying to intensify pressure on each other by striking targets behind the front lines. Ukraine is attacking Russian oil enterprises and data centers. Meanwhile, Russia is launching strikes on Kyiv and other regions, with objects related to nuclear power plants also being targeted in some cases.

The objective of such actions is to achieve through other means the results not attained on the front line, to weaken the opponent's economic capabilities, and to impact its internal stability. The parties may thus attempt to fuel discontent within the rival society, turn the population against the government, and increase political pressure. This is not a new phenomenon in wars; however, in today's escalatory conflicts, striking behind the front lines and sparking social discontent are becoming tools to force the opponent into concessions.

I do not agree with the information that the city of Lyman has fallen out of Russian control. Ukraine, having mobilized its large forces in the Donbas to this direction, may have captured the forest areas around Lyman. However, the main part of the city of Lyman remains under Russian control. The second issue is the report given to Putin by the Chief of the General Staff of Russia, Valery Gerasimov. It states that Dobropillia, one of the important cities on the border of the Donbas and the Dnipropetrovsk region, has been captured. But this information is also doubtful. The Russian press and Z-bloggers have also criticized official reports several times before.