Trump shadow looms large over Brics as Modi hosts Putin and Xi in Delhi

Trump’s shadow hangs over Brics as Modi hosts Putin and Xi in Delhi

Although the US is not a Brics member, President Donald Trump’s influence will be felt strongly at the group’s summit in Delhi this weekend.

Leaders from 11 Brics countries — including host India, China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, the UAE and Iran, with Saudi Arabia present as an invited member — will discuss a broad range of topics. Yet few are likely to matter more than the effects of President Trump’s policies.

The war in Iran, along with the constant threat of White House tariffs aimed at both US rivals and allies, has unsettled global energy markets and often left the world economy uncertain about what comes next.

It is in this context that Brics leaders are gathering. Even so, the group is unlikely to issue a consensus statement that directly criticises the US or sets out a coordinated response to President Trump’s policies and geopolitics.

One reason is that Brics itself remains deeply split over how far it should go in confronting Washington.

“India cannot afford to have a joint statement that rails against Washington,” Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told the BBC. He expects any criticism of US policy to be “vague and indirect”, reflecting the sharply different interests inside the enlarged group.

While Russia and Iran may press for a firmer stance against President Trump, the geopolitical realities within Brics are likely to make that hard.

India, which is reportedly in the final stages of a trade deal with the US, will not want a statement that risks irritating the White House. China, too, may be cautious about appearing to use Brics to target Washington.

Then there is the UAE, which has been attacked by Iran during Tehran’s retaliation against US and Israeli strikes. The Gulf state, which hosts US military bases, is unlikely to back a statement that would aid Tehran’s position.

Kugelman says Brics has gained importance through expansion, but that expansion has also made agreement more difficult.

“You’ve added a number of members that don’t get along,” he said, describing India’s challenge as bringing together countries with “a wide array of views and positions on the global order”.

Trump has also been outspoken against Brics, especially its efforts to reduce global trade’s reliance on the US dollar, widely known as de-dollarisation.

He has repeatedly warned the group against trying to create an alternative currency or taking steps to weaken the dollar’s dominance in global trade.

In one such threat, Trump said in November 2024 that Brics countries would face “100% tariffs” if they supported another currency to replace the “mighty US dollar”.

So what can the group realistically achieve under these conditions?

Brics’ geopolitical and economic weight has increased significantly over the past decade. While it will be reluctant to take an openly anti-US or anti-Western line, the group will want to build on what it has already accomplished and show that it can emerge as an alternative to blocs such as the G20 and G7.

According to BBC Monitoring’s analysis, Brics now represents 49% of the world’s population, 40% of global GDP and 26% of international trade.

Its most concrete success remains the New Development Bank, which has approved billions of dollars in infrastructure and development projects, many of them in countries in the global south.

The group has also established a $100bn contingency reserve arrangement to support members facing financial crises, though it has not yet been tested.

Leaders are also likely to look at ways to make cross-border payments in local currencies easier. That will be especially relevant for Moscow and Tehran, both of which are under severe US sanctions.

Brics is also expected to continue presenting itself as a voice for developing nations, jointly pushing for reforms to institutions such as the United Nations, International Monetary Fund and World Bank, which many developing countries believe no longer reflect the new global order.

For India in particular, the summit offers a chance to strengthen its claim to leadership of the global south.

Many of Delhi’s own foreign policy priorities — including multilateralism, a more multipolar world, greater representation for developing countries and freer global trade — closely match Brics’ broader agenda.

But India will also need to find ways to navigate China’s considerable influence inside Brics and its stronger reach across much of the developing world.

The Modi government has put heavy emphasis on becoming a “leader or a voice of the Global South”, Kugelman says. But India’s efforts have had “limited success” in making deeper gains in Africa and Latin America, where China has been more effective.

With most Brics members coming from developing economies, Kugelman says the expanded group gives India a chance to deepen ties with countries such as Ethiopia, Brazil and Indonesia and build a stronger profile across Africa and Latin America.

The war in Iran and its economic consequences are expected to be high on the agenda.

For Delhi, the key test will be whether it can secure a consensus statement — often viewed as a sign of the host nation’s diplomatic success. That will be difficult given sharp disagreements over the Iran war, relations with the US and the future of global trade.

The size of the challenge was clear in May, when Brics foreign ministers failed to agree on a joint statement after their summit because of differences over the Iran war, forcing host India to issue a chair’s summary instead.

India will draw confidence from its experience hosting the G20 in 2023, when it managed to secure a joint declaration despite deep divisions over Russia’s war in Ukraine.

But Delhi will also want concrete announcements and to highlight what Brics has already achieved. On that point, members are likely to agree: none will want the grouping dismissed as merely a “talk shop”.

Leaders are expected to examine ways to strengthen financial cooperation and may make substantive announcements. They are also likely to discuss major geopolitical developments, with any language on the US expected to be carefully worded to avoid confrontation.

Washington, meanwhile, will be watching closely.

The summit will also host several significant bilateral meetings. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday will be closely followed. The two countries have been gradually rebuilding ties, though progress has been more cautious than either side may have wanted.

Modi is also scheduled to meet President Vladimir Putin, with the war in Ukraine likely to be a major topic.

Modi made a strong public appeal for peace when he met Putin last month on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek. While some saw his comments as a rebuke to Moscow, Russia did not interpret them that way and publicly welcomed Modi’s efforts.

Beyond geopolitics, India’s widening trade deficit with both Russia and China is also likely to come up in the bilateral talks.

In the end, though, the group’s priority will be to end the summit successfully, since that would further strengthen Brics’ influence.

For host India, it would also be a diplomatic and geopolitical success at a time when Delhi is trying to reassert its international standing.

Kugelman says the stakes are especially high for India at this summit.

Delhi, he argues, has been somewhat overshadowed by Pakistan’s recent diplomatic role in the Middle East, including its involvement in mediation efforts around the Iran war.

“This is an important opportunity for India to reassert its global significance and its global leadership,” he says. “That is one reason why the stakes are high.”

The summit, he adds, is in some ways “more important for India as host than it is for the Brics grouping as a whole”.