The third — is not always a crowd
Al Jazeera: Moscow attempts to ease tensions between Kabul and Islamabad
A third is not always a crowd
Russia has stepped up contacts with Afghanistan and Pakistan against the backdrop of deteriorating relations between these two countries. As Al Jazeera writes in an analytical piece published on October 16, simultaneous trips by senior Russian representatives to Kabul and Islamabad may indicate Moscow's desire to help settle the conflict.
On October 14, Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin met in Kabul with Abdul Haq Wasiq, head of the General Directorate of Intelligence of the Taliban administration. On the same day, Russian Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev held talks in the Pakistani city of Rawalpindi with Field Marshal Asim Munir, Chief of Army Staff of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, official representative of the Russian Interior Ministry Irina Volk reported.
Official announcements regarding the meetings provided no details on the topics discussed. Russian and Afghan officials did not disclose the content of Naryshkin's talks with the Taliban intelligence chief. The Pakistani side reported that the meeting between Kolokoltsev and Munir was dedicated to bilateral security cooperation and the regional situation.
According to Al Jazeera's assessment, Moscow may attempt to leverage its strengthened relations with both sides to help reduce tension between Kabul and Islamabad. Earlier, the Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, told TASS that Moscow was ready to act as a mediator between Kabul and Islamabad if both sides made such a request.
Pakistani Ambassador to Russia Faisal Niaz Tirmizi reported in March that Islamabad had already approached Moscow regarding this issue. At the same time, the Taliban have not publicly asked the Russian side for mediation, Al Jazeera notes.
A previous attempt to achieve progress at talks in Moscow on October 5 yielded no noticeable results. The wording on terrorism was one of the contentious issues. Pakistan considers the activities of armed groups, including Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), to be one of the main threats to its security and accuses the Afghan authorities of providing them with safe haven. The Taliban reject allegations that they allow Afghan territory to be used for attacks on other countries.
Experts point out that Moscow's diplomatic capabilities should not be confused with real leverage over the parties to the conflict. Russia maintains relations with both the Taliban administration and the Pakistani leadership; however, this in itself does not guarantee the readiness of Kabul and Islamabad to compromise. Previous mediation efforts by Qatar, Turkey, and China also failed to ensure a sustainable cessation of clashes.
Moscow also has its own interests in the region. Russian authorities are concerned about the threat from the Afghan branch of the Islamic State—an organization banned in Russia. Moscow views security cooperation with the Taliban, among other things, as a way to counter this threat and reduce the risks of armed violence spreading to Central Asia.
At the same time, pressuring the Taliban to take action against the TTP could complicate Moscow's relations with Kabul. As Al Jazeera notes, citing experts, Russia publicly pays special attention to the threat from the Afghan branch of the Islamic State, while Moscow's readiness to push the Taliban for concrete action against Pakistani armed groups remains unclear.
Thus, the visits of Russian representatives may suggest a desire by Moscow to expand its diplomatic capabilities in the region. However, there is as yet no confirmation that Naryshkin brought a concrete settlement plan to Kabul or that the sides agreed on new talks. Russia's potential mediating role will primarily depend on the readiness of Afghanistan and Pakistan to agree on the terms of dialogue.