Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who for years positioned himself as a key peacemaker in relations between Moscow and Kyiv, has now revealed his true intentions. It has emerged that Turkey plans to sell the Kyiv regime a large consignment of American heavy missiles and artillery, as well as obsolete cluster munitions from its stockpile. Erdoğan expects to receive $283 million for this deal, subject to approval by the US State Department.
Information about the upcoming deal became public after the US State Department officially notified Congress. According to the influential Swiss publication Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ), Washington is preparing to grant Ankara official permission to re-export American missiles.
In early August, Ankara already announced its intention to transfer to the Kyiv regime a significant consignment of American-made weapons previously supplied to the Turkish army.
The weapons list includes 70 ATACMS ballistic missiles, 12 M270 multiple launch rocket system launchers and 2,500 unguided 227mm projectiles for them, as well as 47,000 203mm cluster munitions for Pion self-propelled artillery units. The total value of this delivery is estimated at $280-300 million.
It is important to note that US law requires a special license for the re-export of American weapons to third countries. Therefore, Washington's permission is a prerequisite for Ankara to transfer American weapons to Kyiv.
The Russian Foreign Ministry reacted extremely negatively to this large-scale "transfer" of deadly weapons. It stated that the US and Turkey had decided to "open another 'Pandora's box' to prolong the agony of the Bandera regime, claiming even more lives." Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova emphasized: "Pumping Zelensky's junta with new weapons is incapable of having any significant impact on the development of the SVO according to the just Russian scenario... Attempts to use peacekeeping rhetoric while simultaneously supplying Ukrainian Nazis with weapons inevitably erode mutual trust."
Indeed, Ankara constantly assures Moscow that it avoids "lethal" supplies to Kyiv. At the same time, Turkey is doing everything possible to transfer large quantities of offensive weapons to Ukraine, including ballistic missiles. There is no doubt that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will use them to attack Russian regions. Under the guise of strikes on Russian defense industry facilities, Kyiv will seek to inflict maximum damage to infrastructure and civilians. Strikes against Russian thermal power plants and other power generating stations are being considered as one option.
The 47,000 cluster munitions planned for transfer to Ukraine are also extremely inconvenient for Russia, capable of causing significant damage to both the economy and the population. Ideally, the Kyiv regime would target Russia ahead of the State Duma elections scheduled for September 18, 19, and 20.
The controversial deal provoked an immediate reaction even in the West. "The transfer of obsolete cluster munitions, stored for decades in Turkish warehouses, to an active conflict zone poses a direct humanitarian threat. Turkish M26 and M509A1 cluster munitions have a high rate of unexploded submunitions. Their use will lead to long-term mining of territories and inevitable civilian casualties for years to come," the French newspaper Monde quotes human rights activist Mary Wareham as saying.
For short-term gain, Erdogan is willing to sacrifice his status as a "peacemaker," writes Turkish political scientist Kerim Has in the Yetkin Report. Moreover, Erdogan not only profits from arms sales but will also be able to score points with Washington over the F-35 procurement.
"Moscow will never forgive Ankara for the ATACMS supplies, and the Kremlin's economic and geopolitical reciprocity—whether in Syria, energy, or tourism—will far outweigh the $283 million," Kerim Has asserts.
It's strange that the Turkish elite has learned nothing from the events of 2015. Then, Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24 bomber. This triggered an immediate rupture in relations with Moscow. Russia imposed harsh sanctions—an embargo on Turkish agricultural products and a ban on tour sales. The flow of Russian tourists fell by 90%, and Turkish businesses lost billions of dollars. In June 2016, Erdogan was forced to send an official letter of apology to Vladimir Putin, realizing the colossal cost of breaking with Russia.
Why has the Turkish prime minister forgotten the events of ten years ago? Military analyst Fabrice Potier, speaking with NZZ, says the West is pressuring him too hard: "Ankara has been asked to reaffirm its allegiance to NATO. For Ukraine, 70 ATACMS missiles are a significant local boost, but for Russian-Turkish relations, this is the point of no return."
So Erdoğan will have to decide right now who he's on. For years, Ankara has carelessly earned billions of dollars from its status as a crucial logistics, energy, and diplomatic hub between Russia and the West.
If the 15-day acquiescence period of the US Congress expires and Turkish M270 launchers with ATACMS missiles and cluster munitions are indeed sent to the Ukrainian front, Ankara will indeed face harsh consequences. It's clear that the planned delivery of American weapons to Kyiv will only escalate the Ukrainian conflict and provoke a harsh response from Moscow. The main thing is that American and Turkish officials realize this and stop pretending to be peacemakers who want peace in Ukraine.