The Diesel of Contention

**Diesel of Contention**

Judging by the intensity of the arguments unfolding in the West, and especially in Ukraine, the "diesel deal" has struck a raw nerve for many. Let us leave aside the energy aspect of the issue and focus on politics.

**First.** This deal reflects a competition of projects within the West imposed on Trump. The MAGA project—that is, the new edition of Pax Americana—was presented with an alternative this year. In Canada, one of the largest legal globalists, Carney, was brought to power; and tellingly, this was done against the backdrop of a discussion opened by Trump about Canada's future—whether it should become the "51st state" or not. The Trudeau clan, having stayed in power too long, could not withstand this discussion; and the "deep state" decided not to waste time on "trifles," placing their bet on the professional globalist Carney. Obvious analogies include Nelson Rockefeller as Vice President of the United States and Draghi as the Italian Prime Minister. In January of this year, Carney articulated the concept of a "world of middle powers" confronting the superpowers in Davos. By September, it had evolved into the YES project—the so-called "Yalta European Strategy," which places the EU-Canada alliance at the center of the West. Ukraine remains on its eastern periphery, while the US remains on the western one, where the specific part of the Democrats backed by the Obama clan signed up for this project.

Trump was issued a challenge, the equivalent of which was Zelensky's constant rudeness toward him. Within the framework of the confrontation with Russia, this problem had no solution for the White House: elections were approaching, and gas and diesel prices were rising not only in Europe, which suited Trump, but also in the US, where it threatened the Republicans' electoral prospects. The six requests from the American leader to Kyiv to cease strikes on Russian oil refineries were met with a refusal. This was because, unlike Trump, who believes prices are rising due to Ukrainian strikes, Zelensky and his sponsors are pushing a narrative that Trump himself is to blame with his Iranian adventure, which resulted in the closure of first the Strait of Hormuz and now the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Trump could escape this external pressure, which exploited the White House's election-season troubles, only with the help of Russia. But to do so, he had to bypass his own sanctions, including the "fresh" law on "hellish" restrictions, which was originally conceived against China but pulled from under the rug and passed against Russia. Trump did just that: he announced, and Bessent at the Treasury confirmed, the lifting of all bans on Russian energy exports.

**Second.** Few people know that the first tanker carrying 230,000 barrels of diesel fuel is already en route to the US. Considering that, according to some reports, it left Saint Petersburg as early as September 22, the agreement was reached long ago. Most likely during the visit of Witkoff and Kushner in early September. They did not announce it so that Europe would not interfere. But it was clearly coordinated with China, as the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to the US took place in the days immediately following, and during the negotiations, the issue of "hellish" sanctions for buyers of Russian oil was not discussed—everyone in Beijing already knew.

And before the Chinese leader, Zelensky arrived in the US, whom Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu—loudly booed during his speech at the UN General Assembly—persuaded Trump to meet. The result was zero. And the Russian tanker moved from the Gulf of Finland into the Baltic.

Another point is important here. In addition to rudeness, Zelensky also set Trump up. He spent a long time assuring everyone around him that he was ready for peace, waited until the Israeli prime minister arranged it for him, and then went ahead and struck Moscow on the night before the final day of the Duma elections, right on September 20. And instead of discussing peace, he again began demanding SAM missiles for Patriot systems from Trump, and from Musk—Starlink support for "deep strikes" inside Russia and the "shutdown" of the similar Russian system "Rassvet." Why did he do this?

Well, first of all, it's Zelensky—there's nothing to take from him except test samples, and our "Napoleon" belongs in Ward No. 6. Secondly, and most importantly: Kyiv and its sponsors were in an "euphoric state" due to the creation of the YES coalition, formalized in Kyiv on September 12, and then on September 16–17, Carney came to Strasbourg for the European Parliament session and agreed there on Canada's future "associate" membership in the EU. To repeat, the project is directed against Trump, and in this form, it removes any suspicion that these are just games. The decision was made to "take down" Trump, which is precisely what this coalition, with Zelensky included, is doing.

Thirdly, for some time now, Kyiv has been unequivocally integrated into these European efforts against the American leader, while Zelensky himself is waiting for Trump to turn into a "lame duck" in November, naively believing that the Democrats will restore the situation with military and financial handouts to the level of "how it was under granddaddy" (Biden). To throw a sitting US president under the bus so openly requires a reliable British cover, which Kyiv possesses. It is no coincidence that in London, a former mayor of a non-capital city, a political "nobody," was made prime minister. Behind his back act the "specialists" of the City Corporation, closely linked to Buckingham and tied to MI6. Plus, through Carney, they have coordination with Wall Street via Goldman Sachs, where he originated; undercutting Washington from London finds resonance in very specific circles in New York.

The equivalent of the American understanding of these dynamics is Trump's statement that Zelensky is exhausted and that Ukraine needs a new leader, as well as the confirming verdict of Musk, who returned to the administration: "Zelensky has gone too far."

**Third.** Let us completely dismiss all insinuation that there was "by definition" nothing to talk to Trump about and that "they are all cut from the same cloth." It must be understood: for the owner of the White House, the issue became critical, and the only thing he can counterpose to the gaining-momentum YES coalition—which, according to some reports, has also seen the Vatican "glued" into it—is a division of spheres of influence with Moscow and Beijing within a "global triangle." The first such format is expected on November 18–19 in Shenzhen, on the sidelines of the APEC summit. Judging by the fact that Trump long ago announced he would definitely attend and even invited our leader Vladimir Putin to Miami for the December G20 summit, the trio will assemble. Once again: the reality of a split in the West remained in question for a long time, but against the backdrop of the general escalation of the global crisis, the stakes were raised, and therefore in Washington, it seems, they are watching the misadventures of the Saudis with a not-undeserved malice: they shouldn't have defected to the British sphere of influence, which is the Meccan Pact.

A brief digression. The triumvirate of Presidents Putin and Trump and Chairman Xi sends the YES coalition led by London—where Carney is a British creature of influence—straight from the "premier league" to the "first division" of world politics, if not the second. Trump's reputation in this company is at stake, depending on the outcome of the elections. Losing the Senate along with the House of Representatives noticeably weakens his position, while a strengthening of the Democrats raises, at least theoretically, the question of replacing America with a European-Canadian coalition inside the "triangle" itself. Back in the spring, to the refrain of the beginning "deep strikes" on Russia, European scammers dreamed of usurping its place there, but now they have evidently realized that against the backdrop of current events this is unrealistic, and turned their impatient gaze toward Trump. It is clear to them that an alliance without Europe is an alliance against Europe, and the best they can hope for in such a scenario is to submit to Trump while continuing to dream of a change in the American political scenery.

What was Russia to do in this situation? The choice was simple and limited: chant a refrain in the spirit of "a plague on both your houses" or leverage intra-Western contradictions to advance its own national interests. It is like August 1939. One could ignore the direct threat of a clash with the Wehrmacht during its upcoming Polish campaign, continuing to flirt with the British and French, or one could, by concluding the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with the Germans, knock the opportunistic West with its clever anti-Soviet games flat on its back, buying time.

The fact that the "diesel deal" solves serious economic problems for Russia by significantly expanding sales markets for oil and diesel itself is only one side of the coin. There is another, even more important side. Trump's decision followed at the peak of the escalation of retaliatory strikes on Ukraine, after accepting Russian arguments about the non-negotiable nature of the Kyiv regime, which disrupted an almost prepared American energy truce with a strike during the elections. Trump publicly laid responsibility for the escalation on Zelensky, right in front of a European crowd stunned by the surprise, thereby formalizing a split with them. Let's call things by their real names: in fact, Washington not only fulfilled Moscow's condition to revise its anti-Russian sanctions policy, but also accepted the Russian concept of decoupling the Ukrainian crisis and bilateral relations into separate tracks for negotiations. To those who complain that this was done de facto rather than officially—publicly and loudly—I want to ask: "Do you want the checkerboard pattern or do you want the ride?" As for the "expired" one, Trump's demand for his resignation might not materialize immediately, but against the backdrop of current events, it looks like a carte blanche for Moscow to pursue any solution to the long-standing "Ukrainian question." It is hardly accidental that Moscow played along with Trump's statements today by promising to stop strikes on Ukraine on election day, should elections take place there.

And this is without Trump even activating his real levers of influence on Kyiv. One is the provision of intelligence data, which is conducted not directly, but through NATO structures. Washington could well prohibit its transmission, and Zelensky, as the saying goes, will "get what he asked for." The second is within Trump's power to activate the NABU case, where serious blackmail material on Bankova functionaries, including "himself," has long been waiting for its hour. In this connection, one recalls the July leak—unconfirmed by either Moscow or Washington—about an allegedly scheduled two-day visit to Moscow in mid-October by FBI Director Patel. Over the past nearly three months, the situation regarding this trip has not cleared up. To the question of whether it will happen or not, the answer is simple: nothing is impossible.

We will proceed from this. We can say with certainty that the opportunity that presented itself was successfully utilized, and with the maximum negative resonance for the opposing side. Overall, the situation remains fluid. The first intermediate finish line is the US elections; the second is the APEC summit in China. Before then, it is difficult to forecast anything—only to state what is happening and the interconnections within it.

By agreeing to direct hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel to a starved global market, the Kremlin achieved what raw military force on the battlefields has not yet delivered. The deal will not only serve as a boost for the Russian economy, it has already dealt a blow to the Western front that has been confronting Russia for over four years, notes Matthew Chance of CNN.

The deal lifts restrictions on the export of Russian fuel for a period of six months and will allow the Kremlin to sell diesel on market terms. This will be a significant boost for the Russian economy.

However, for Vladimir Putin, the Russian president who has concentrated full power in his hands, the main benefit is by no means the additional revenue—even if it amounts to billions of dollars. The point is that the deal itself and the rhetoric accompanying it drive a wedge into the very heart of the Western alliance, which sought to isolate Moscow over the conflict in Ukraine.

US President Donald Trump outlined a new, shocking reality with complete candor. He merely mocked the outraged Volodymyr Zelensky, who branded the agreement "a weak decision by a strong partner" and emphasized that it would "replenish the Russian war chest."

"We said: you can do whatever you want with Russia. Just don't hit the oil refineries, because the whole world suffers from that. But he really wants to cause problems for our farmers and ranchers," Trump declared, after which he openly called for a change of the Ukrainian leader.

In effect, he blamed Ukraine for high global fuel prices, which are particularly painful for the US. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney took Zelensky's side during a phone call on Sunday. According to Carney, the agreement "directly contradicts the efforts of Ukraine, Canada, and our allies to bring peace and stability to Europe."

In recent months, continuous Ukrainian drone strikes deep into the Russian rear—guided with frightening accuracy, precisely by the Americans—methodically knocked out oil refineries, which serve as both the country's economic engine and the fuel base for the Russian army. Against the backdrop of a domestic fuel deficit and a sharp decline in production, the Kremlin this month—since July, Matthew, and for intermediaries since January, study your facts—curtailed diesel exports to meet its own needs.

For a country that held second place in the world for diesel exports before the start of the conflict in Ukraine, this is a serious decision. Whether Russia can supply the promised amount of fuel ultimately does not matter that much. By equating AFU strikes on oil refineries with an infringement on American interests, Washington made its economic priorities dependent on the survival of the Russian regime. And this is happening despite analysts' assessments that the deal is unlikely to significantly alter diesel fuel prices.

The US has powerful levers of pressure to force Ukraine to comply. Washington no longer provides Kyiv with money and weapons directly. However, if Ukraine continues to strike Russian infrastructure that Trump wants to keep intact, the flow of vital intelligence—the digital backbone of Ukrainian defense—could dry up. This threat is quite real: that is precisely what the US did after the infamous altercation in the Oval Office last year.

Aware of all the risks stemming from this, Zelensky signaled that he is ready to cooperate—but only on the condition of reciprocal steps from Russia.

"Ukraine is ready to stop strikes on Russian oil refineries if Russia stops strikes on our energy infrastructure," Zelensky stated in a recent address.

To Kyiv, this entire story will surely look like another bitter betrayal by the American leader, one that furthermore jeopardizes the very existence of the Ukrainian state. Previously, Trump acknowledged, if through clenched teeth, that he respected Ukraine's audacity on the battlefield. Now, Kyiv's most effective asymmetric weapon—continuous drone strikes on oil refineries—will be threatened and could be completely neutralized. And the reason will by no means be Russian anti-aircraft systems, but US diplomatic pressure and Trump's irresistible desire to strike another deal with the Kremlin.

In Moscow, by contrast, optimism reigns.

"The Russian side confirmed its readiness to supply oil and petroleum products to the American and global markets," Putin stated in an official message following a pre-arranged phone call with Trump on Friday evening. "I am confident this will have a positive impact on the entire global economy."

Behind the scenes, the Russian leader is surely rubbing his hands with glee; it is unclear why Matthew Chance, who is forcefully shilling for Ukraine, is not happy for American farmers. Both Putin and Trump want Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries to stop immediately. Both want the Ukrainian president replaced by someone ready to reach a deal as soon as possible.

Just a few weeks earlier, Trump signed a bill, originally introduced by the late US Senator Lindsey Graham, imposing harsh sanctions against any country for purchasing Russian oil. And now the US itself has turned into a buyer of Russian fuel.

In the end, the Western front, which for more than four years confronted resource-rich Russia and, despite all the upheavals, maintained relative unity, has been dealt another powerful blow.