S&P attributes the upgrade of Uzbekistan's credit rating to the consistency of its economic policy
International investors evaluating Uzbekistan pay attention not so much to individual reforms as to the consistency and predictability of the authorities' economic policies.
S&P: Uzbekistan's credit rating upgrade driven by consistent economic policy
International investors assessing Uzbekistan are focusing less on individual reforms than on the stability and predictability of the government's economic policy. This was stated on August 24 by Roman Rebulkin, Director of Central Asia Ratings at Standard & Poor's, speaking at a panel discussion on capital and investment issues at the Silk Road Finance & Technology Forum in Tashkent.
What Attracts Investors
According to Rebulkin, in its interactions with investors, the agency consistently notes two key requirements: economic growth and a certain degree of predictability.
"Investors are looking for two things: growth... [and] there has been very high average growth of 6% since 2017. Clearly, there is a fairly high demographic dividend in Central Asia in general and in Uzbekistan in particular, which will help the market grow... and the second part is a certain degree of predictability," he explained.
**Link Between Rating and Policy Consistency**
Rebulkin directly linked the upgrade of Uzbekistan's sovereign credit rating in 2025 to the authorities' demonstrated sustainable and coordinated reform agenda.
"On this front, we have seen fairly consistent policy development in Uzbekistan. In fact, our upgrade of the sovereign credit rating in 2025 was largely due to this consistent track record in policy development and interagency coordination in this area," the S&P representative noted.
**Risks under the agency's radar**
At the same time, Rebulkin also pointed to factors that have supported macroeconomic stability in the region in recent years, but will not continue indefinitely.
According to him, these include high gold prices and significant flows of migrant labor income, which have supported the current account deficit.
He warned that a weakening of these factors creates risks for Uzbekistan's budget and balance of payments: according to S&P estimates, a decline in gold prices could have an effect of approximately 1% of GDP on the current account in 2027–2028, while a $500 drop in the gold price could reduce budget revenues (including taxes and dividends from mining companies) by almost $1 billion. The agency also takes climate risks and the dependence of neighboring countries in the region (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) on hydropower generation into account when assessing creditworthiness.
Responding to these comments, Central Bank Chairman Timur Ishmetov confirmed that the regulator is considering risks from oil and food prices, but noted that they have not yet had a direct impact on Uzbekistan, although the Central Bank is closely monitoring possible secondary effects.