Somali piracy surges as the impact of the US-Iran war ripples outwards

Somali piracy is experiencing a resurgence, escalating threats to shipping that is already strained by maritime blockades and conflicts stemming from the US war with Iran. Pirates are now boarding vessels far from the coast and guiding them closer to shore.

Last week, two cargo ships were seized in the Gulf of Aden within four days, bringing the total number of attacked ships this year to at least 13. This surge has prompted unprecedented drone strikes against the pirates. This marks the most significant increase in hijackings in over a decade, reigniting concerns about security in this vital international trade region.

"Piracy is always a crime of opportunity," stated Omar Mahmood, a senior Somalia analyst for the International Crisis Group (ICG), adding, "and right now the pirates see an opportunity."

This opportunity arises from the war's impact on regional waterways further north. The US and Iran are locked in a struggle for control of the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Concurrently, Tehran's Houthi allies in Yemen have imposed a targeted blockade in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which governs access to the Red Sea. While primarily focused on a dispute with Saudi Arabia, this blockade heightens insecurity for international shipping.

Vice-Admiral Ignacio Villanueva Serrano, operation commander for the European Union's naval force protecting shipping off Somalia's coast, commented, "I guess the pirates believe that with those two external events in Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, they believe that the international forces will be dedicated to those crises instead of looking for pirates."

Among the recently hijacked vessels was the Cameroon-flagged MV Lutuf, attacked off Somalia's semi-autonomous Puntland region on August 17. Days later, pirates boarded the Eritrean-flagged oil products tanker MT Sibu 1 in waters near Yemen, on the opposite side of the Gulf.

The capture of the Lutuf has led to unforeseen consequences. Since August 18, two drone strikes have killed thirteen men allegedly linked to a network supplying the pirates on the ship. While no entity has claimed responsibility, local officials have attributed the attacks to Turkey, asserting that the vessel was transporting Turkish weapons.

The BBC has learned that the Lutuf is now one of six vessels being held for multi-million dollar ransom demands. Four of these are anchored near Bander Beyla, a fishing town known as a piracy hotbed.

While significant, current hijacking levels are far from the peak seen 15 years ago, which cost the global economy billions. In 2011, Somali pirates conducted over 200 attacks and held hundreds of crew members hostage. A coordinated international naval response, coupled with private security on commercial ships, successfully curbed the threat and contained flare-ups in 2023 and 2024.

However, experts emphasize that while pirate networks were suppressed, they remained intact due to the failure to address the underlying poor economic and security conditions in Somalia that fuel them.

Currently, the resurgence is locally driven by anger over foreign trawlers overfishing in Somali waters, which damages the fishing industry supporting communities in Puntland. Additionally, there are now more targets with potentially larger payloads. Regional maritime insecurity has pushed some ships closer to the Somali coast as they divert south to avoid northern conflicts. Given high oil prices, hijacking a tanker is more lucrative.

Analyst Mahmood noted, "You have that combined effect of less naval patrolling but more commercial shipping in these waters," adding, "and that signals an opportunity. And once you've had a successful attack, I think that spurs other units to do copycat type incidents as well."

Mahmood and other researchers suspect potential collaboration between Somali pirates and Yemenis following several vessel seizures near Yemen's coast. However, Mahmood believes these are more likely criminal elements than Iran's Houthi allies, especially since one of the ships seized last week, the MT Sibu 1, allegedly belonged to an Iranian "shadow fleet" used to transport petroleum products to evade US sanctions. "I don't see something specifically Iran-directed," he stated.

Turkey, however, reportedly has a stake in the recent hijackings. Puntland security sources and a Somali government official informed the BBC that the Lutuf was carrying weapons destined for a Turkish military training facility in Mogadishu, the Somali capital. Ankara has an agreement with Somalia to enhance its maritime security as part of a broader defense and economic partnership.

Security sources claim that six international warships are now in the waters near the Lutuf – two from Turkey and one each from Spain, Denmark, the US, and India. The BBC has not independently verified this information.

A Somali government official, speaking anonymously, stated, "There is military equipment on the [hijacked] ship meant for Turkey's operations in Somalia," adding that the cargo included satellite equipment for a space station Ankara is constructing north of the capital. He alleged that Turkey carried out the second drone strike that killed nine armed men on Sunday. "The men who were killed were criminals and I don't have sympathy for them," he said, "but taking it to that level is escalating the situation even more."

Turkey's defense ministry has confirmed that its forces are providing "necessary support" to Somali authorities regarding the hijacked vessel incident in Somali territorial waters, within their security agreement framework. However, it did not address accusations that Turkey conducted deadly drone strikes.

Publicly, the Mogadishu government has only acknowledged awareness of operations against pirate groups and stated it will take measures to address them. Puntland authorities have been more vocal.

Speaking to the BBC's Somali Service, Deputy Minister of Security Abdirahman Yusuf asserted that his administration possessed evidence of Turkish responsibility for the attacks, citing information about Turkish activity around the vessel and along the Puntland coast. The BBC has not independently verified his allegations.

The security ministry also issued a statement opposing "bombings by international warships targeting civilians" that "undermined co-operation… in combatting piracy," and demanded an immediate explanation for their execution.

Analysts suggest that Puntland's apprehension regarding Turkey's close military relationship with the Somali government, coupled with these incidents, risks further complicating a long-standing political dispute between the semi-autonomous region and Mogadishu, which hinders a coordinated anti-piracy effort.

While not yet a full-blown resurgence, without an end to the US-Iran war or increased international deterrence efforts, Somali piracy is poised to continue elevating the threat level in a crucial maritime space already under dangerous pressure.