Russia could attack NATO in the fall - US intelligence

**US intelligence: Russia may attack NATO in the fall of 2026**

US intelligence agencies do not rule out the possibility of Vladimir Putin attacking NATO's eastern flank as early as the fall of 2026. The Wall Street Journal reports that various scenarios are being considered, from cyberattacks to small-scale airborne operations.

Previously, the US believed that Putin would not provoke NATO members while the war in Ukraine was ongoing. However, US officials told the WSJ that this assessment had changed in early 2026.

Ukrainian drones are increasingly damaging Russia's oil infrastructure. At the front, Russian troops are making insignificant progress at the cost of heavy losses. Therefore, Putin is in a difficult position and needs some military success.

The United States and Europe are increasingly seeing signs that Russia is testing NATO’s resolve. These include Russian cruise missiles that have landed in Poland and drones that have repeatedly entered Romanian airspace in recent weeks.

According to U.S. intelligence agencies, a Russian attack could occur between the fall of 2026 and 2029. American officials say Putin’s goal is to break up the alliance.

The most dangerous scenario is a limited amphibious operation, which is unlikely but is becoming more likely over time. There is also the possibility of sending armed groups to seize territory, as happened in Crimea in 2014.

However, both scenarios are considered unlikely. This would trigger Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which obliges alliance members to collectively defend themselves.

"We are preparing for any scenario. NATO is monitoring the situation. We are ready to deter and defend if necessary, and we continue to demonstrate this in practice," said NATO spokesman Colonel Martin O'Donnell.

Earlier it was reported that North Korea had begun deploying a missile unit in Russia for a war against Ukraine.