Rosenberg: Shortage of petrol but not patriotism as Russians feel growing impact of war

Russians are experiencing the increasing effects of the war, facing petrol shortages but not a lack of patriotism, according to Rosenberg. In Moscow, long queues for petrol are common.

Svyatoslav, for instance, had been waiting in his car for two hours at a petrol station in southeast Moscow when the sign changed to indicate no fuel. "They say there will be petrol here," Svyatoslav optimistically stated, "They just don't know when. Maybe today, maybe tomorrow." When asked why he didn't seek another station, he replied, "I haven't got enough in the tank to do that." Even if he did, finding fuel quickly would be difficult, as Moscow and other parts of Russia have seen extensive petrol queues this week.

Russian officials attribute these shortages to "unscheduled repairs at oil refineries," which have been prompted by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities. These long-range attacks previously caused significant fuel shortages earlier this summer, and the targeting of refineries has persisted. This time, the queues in Moscow are even longer, suggesting authorities are struggling with refining capacity and logistics. "The second wave of the fuel crisis is building," reported the broadsheet Nezavisimaya Gazeta this week.

Driving through Moscow, two striking observations are the patriotic announcements on large billboards celebrating Russian Flag Day and the massive petrol queues. Outside one Moscow petrol station, 80 vehicles were counted waiting in line, making the search for fuel a constant challenge.

Elizaveta, queuing for fuel again, recounted, "Last night I went to get petrol at 11pm. By midnight I'd reached the front of the queue. Then they shut the petrol station until 2am." Lyubov, who drove into Moscow from the provinces, noted, "It was empty petrol stations all the way." To maintain calm in the queue, Lyubov was stroking her pet dog, Agatha. When asked about her view of the fuel crisis, Lyubov said, "Everyone says there is a difficult situation in the country. Everyone connects this to that situation."

Before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, drone attacks on Russian oil refineries or other facilities within Russia were nonexistent. These strikes have not compelled the Kremlin to change course; it continues what it terms the "special military operation."

To alleviate the crisis, Russia, an energy superpower and major crude oil exporter, has begun importing petrol—an extraordinary measure. The government has also temporarily permitted the production and sale of lower-grade petrol, such as Euro 2, which is quicker to produce. Euro 2, banned in Russia in 2013, contains up to 50 times more sulphur than modern Euro 5. The government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta warned that "For modern cars, regular use of lower-grade petrol can increase the pressure on the fuel injector, spark plugs, oxygen sensors, the catalytic converter and soot filter. Euro 2 won't kill an engine on one re-fuelling. But it sharply reduces the margin of safety."

The war's impact on Russians extends beyond oil facilities. Ukrainian strikes on Wildberries distribution centers, Russia's equivalent of Amazon, are disrupting shoppers and causing economic hardship for sellers. President Vladimir Putin acknowledged this week that attacks on industrial facilities and infrastructure "do inflict damage; this is obvious. We understand this, we see it." However, he downplayed the issues, stating, "There are no critical consequences from such attacks. There have not been and cannot be," implying no need for panic.

Andrei Kolesnikov, a columnist for the independent news outlet Novaya Gazeta, believes this represents "a disconnect between people's feelings and the description of reality by Vladimir Putin, the description of his personal reality in his head." He added, "Maybe he's trying to hypnotise himself that everything is okay." Recent polling in Russia, including by the Public Opinion Foundation, indicates rising societal anxiety, suggesting the Kremlin's 'keep calm and carry on' message is not resonating. "This permanent feeling of anxiety is with everyone right now. You feel that something is wrong. Anxiety is the main sentiment," Kolesnikov observed. He further noted, "This regime doesn't demonstrate any model of the future: the nearest future, a middle-term future, a long-term future. We are 'great' right now. What are the qualities of this greatness? The petrol crisis? In that sense, the future is aborted. People are trying not to think about the future. The horizon of planning is very short."

A short drive from where Svyatoslav was queuing, another long line was spotted, but this one was for candyfloss. Local authorities had set up stalls and a street concert for Russian Flag Day, demonstrating a shortage of petrol but not patriotism. A singer crooned, "It's my country, my fate, my dream. I'm raising my flag. The flag of my country." Volunteers distributed Russian tricolours, and a speaker declared, "Dear friends, we live in a wonderful country! We know that we will always be victorious. I wish you peaceful skies, a good mood, comfort, prosperity and pride in our country."

Alongside candyfloss, Kalashnikovs were on display. Children were shown military hardware, including hand-held rocket launchers, picking them up and posing, hinting at the growing militarization of Russian society. This patriotic display lifted some spirits. Pensioner Tatyana stated, "Difficulties unite us. The harder things are, the stronger we get."

However, the war remains a significant concern, particularly Ukrainian drone attacks on the Moscow region. Angelina shared, "When you go to sleep you don't know if you'll wake up in the morning. That's the only problem. Everything else is fine." Another woman recounted, "The problems we have are high prices, petrol shortages and last night, for the first time, my windows shook…I heard 'boom boom!'" She added, "Right now, it's important to take care of your psychological state, so that it's strong and unbreakable. So that, whatever happens, you can say: 'Oh well, never mind.'" Such comments suggest Russians feel they cannot influence events and can only try to adapt.