Rosenberg: Russia's elections will have few surprises, but for the Kremlin they matter

Rosenberg: Russia's elections will have few surprises, but for the Kremlin they matter

Russia’s system of power is often described as “managed democracy” — with the Kremlin doing the managing. That gives the president enormous authority and leaves little room for political shocks.

This weekend’s vote is expected to produce yet another parliament dominated by the party of power, United Russia, and a chamber of MPs intensely loyal to Vladimir Putin. Critics say the election is neither free nor fair.

But the Kremlin is unconcerned by what critics think.

“We have our own political system, our own political process,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said recently.

So there are no curveballs for the Kremlin. No surprises. No story?

Not at all.

For the Kremlin, the election of 450 deputies to the lower house of parliament, the Duma, is significant. It is the first parliamentary election in Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The Kremlin will use it to argue that most Russians support the president and the war, and also to advance the political careers of soldiers returning from Ukraine: officials say nearly two hundred war veterans are standing in the election.

This election is being used to promote the political careers of some military veterans

The campaign itself has offered a glimpse into Russian society four-and-a-half years into the war.

I said there would be no surprises. But there have been some.

“Good evening and welcome to tonight’s campaign speeches by candidates for Duma Electoral District 158,” the anchor said on state TV.

The studio director then cut to a wide shot showing six empty lecterns.

“The candidates haven’t turned up,” the host admitted. “So, it’s goodbye from me.”

In another TV debate, where the politicians did appear, one singing candidate delivered his pitch:

“The Communist Party, onwards we go!

“We’re with the people, don’t you know?”

More X Factor than exit poll.

Still, a musical manifesto is oddly fitting. In the previous Duma, everyone seemed to be singing from the same hymn sheet. At the final parliamentary session in July, MPs rose and applauded as the speaker of the house repeatedly chanted:

“Russia, Putin, Victory! Russia, Putin, Victory!”

That was a signal that all MPs in parliament should support President Putin and the war.

“All parties in the Duma, every single one, voted in favour of 170 laws to support the special military operation,” Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov told me with clear pride about the last parliament.

“In that sense there is 100% agreement in the Duma.”

I met Zyuganov on the campaign trail outside Moscow at a bread and biscuit factory. Watching rows of identical-looking loaves moving quickly along the conveyor belt made me think of Russia’s parliament. It is not that every party in the Duma is the same: some are more nationalist, others — like Zyuganov’s party — more left-wing.

But when it comes to supporting the Kremlin’s legislative agenda and backing the “special military operation,” they vote alike. Such “systemic” parties are essential parts of Russia’s Kremlin-centred political machine.

And what about a party that does not support the war?

One such party — Yabloko — is calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine. In July it was the only anti-war party in Russia registered for the election. Twelve days later, however, the Supreme Court removed it from the ballot. That was widely seen as a sign of Kremlin concern that anti-war messaging might resonate with Russian voters.

Even after Yabloko was excluded from the party list, some of its candidates are still contesting individual constituency races. But in recent weeks increasing numbers of Yabloko candidates have been detained by police, prosecuted for various offences and barred from the election.

“The police are carrying out a political order. That’s no secret,” Yabloko candidate Grigory Grishin told me.

“This way, the authorities are drawing the boundaries within which they believe the elections should take place.

“It is well known that the demand for an end to the bloodshed in this conflict with Ukraine is very popular. In my opinion, most people in Russia now want peace and Yabloko helped people express this. That’s why it’s been excluded from the party lists, and why individual candidates are being barred.”

For now, Grigory is still a candidate. But police recently came to his flat.

“Three policemen in civilian clothes asked me to accompany them to the station, which I did. The police said I had posted what they claimed was an extremist symbol: the word ‘Navalny’ and that, by doing so, I had propagandised extremism via my Telegram channel.”

Alexei Navalny was Russia’s best-known opposition leader and a Kremlin critic who died in prison in 2024. He had been convicted on several charges, including extremism.

Russian authorities insist the Duma elections are transparent and fair. Critics of the vote point to opposition politicians who have been forced into exile or imprisoned. Last year, one of the leaders of a prominent independent election monitoring group in Russia was jailed for five years. Grigory Melkonyants was convicted on charges of working with an “undesirable organisation”. His election monitoring group, Golos, has shut down.

Fifty miles from Moscow, in the town of Dmitrov, there is little sign of an election.

In the town centre stands a memorial to “Heroes of the special military operation”: local people killed fighting in Ukraine.

The war is at the forefront of people’s minds here.

“We feel it,” says Olga, whose son-in-law is a soldier in the “special operation”. “Because of the people who’ve gone to fight and the families left behind with sons, husbands, children and grandchildren there. But these elections can’t influence what will happen.”

“I’d like us to live in a peaceful country, with no war,” Polina tells me, “So that you don’t have to worry that a drone will fall down in front of you.”

Russians have other worries too. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have caused widespread fuel shortages, while economic pressure is growing.

“What worries me,” says a barber called Ivan, “is that no matter how much you earn it’s not enough. Prices are rising faster than wages. I speak to lots of people in my job. I know how hard-up they are.”

Few expect this election to change much.

“Western elections and elections in Russia are completely different things,” Grishin explains. “Elections in the West are a way of forming a government, which is replaced later if voters aren’t satisfied.

“Elections in Russia never bring a change in government. At best, they’re a way of influencing it, of sending a signal. But power in Russia never changed because of an election. That’s how Russia is.”