Putin can no longer claim victory in Ukraine, Nobel Peace Prize winner tells BBC

Dmitry Muratov, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has informed the BBC that Russian President Vladimir Putin can no longer assert victory in Ukraine, simultaneously cautioning about the potential for nuclear escalation under Putin's leadership.

Within the silent corridors of Moscow's Novaya Gazeta newspaper offices, a profound sense of emptiness prevails. "There is no newspaper anymore," stated former chief editor Dmitry Muratov.

Muratov co-founded Novaya Gazeta over three decades ago, establishing it as a leading voice for independent journalism in Russia, known for exposing human rights abuses and high-level corruption. In 2021, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his dedication to "safeguard freedom of expression." The Nobel Committee highlighted that "six of [Novaya Gazeta's] journalists have been killed, including Anna Politkovskaya who wrote revealing articles on the war in Chechnya," acknowledging the paper's courageous reporting.

However, this recognition did not safeguard the publication. Muratov explained, "Putin issued a decree and the newspaper's printing presses were nationalised. Its registration was revoked." He subsequently auctioned his Nobel Prize medal to support UNICEF's humanitarian efforts for Ukrainian refugees.

While Novaya Gazeta maintains an online presence, access to its website is blocked by authorities within Russia, accessible only from abroad or via VPNs. This situation mirrors the broader suppression of free speech in Russia, which has intensified since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

"Most opinion leaders have been declared 'foreign agents', 'extremists' or 'terrorists'. Several hundred," Muratov noted. He added, "Figures vary, but at a conservative estimate, since the start of Russia's 'special military operation' [in Ukraine] at least 1,500 people are now in prison having spoken out against current state policy. That's three times more than during the savage days of the KGB in the USSR."

He drew a parallel to history, recalling that dissident Andrei Sakharov listed over 120 political prisoners in the Soviet Union in his 1975 Nobel Peace Prize lecture, and a decade later, Amnesty International estimated more than 600 prisoners of conscience in the USSR.

Journalists Antonina Favorskaya, Konstantin Gabov, Sergey Karelin, and Artyom Kriger were recently jailed for five and a half years on extremism charges.

What the Kremlin anticipated in 2022 to be a swift and successful "military operation" has evolved into Europe's deadliest conflict since World War II. Despite this, President Putin confidently continues to predict a Russian victory.

Muratov countered, "There will never be 'victory'. Because what has been going on for nearly five years – no matter how it ends – can no longer be considered a victory. It cannot be a victory when two Slavic nations have ripped a million people to shreds. Or more than a million."

He elaborated on the current situation in Ukraine: "It seems to me that the situation with Ukraine now is this: you can destroy it, but you cannot conquer it. What do I mean by destroy? Continued escalation all the way to the use of a nuclear weapon."

When questioned about the likelihood of the Kremlin leader using nuclear weapons, Muratov dismissed political experts who claim to know Putin's thoughts as "charlatans," comparing it to astrology. "Nobody knows what's going on in Vladimir Putin's head. And I don't know," he stated.

"I see things only as a journalist. I study big data. And since the beginning of the year the need to use nuclear weapons has been mentioned more than 500 times. When wackos say this, I pay no attention. But I've heard it discussed on state TV. And at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, a state-run event, one of the speakers talked up the use of nuclear weapons as something favourable, something good."

In February 2022, President Putin justified the invasion of Ukraine by citing the need to "ensure the security of Russia." Muratov challenged this assertion: "Tell me, has security increased? With Ukrainian drones now attacking warehouses of [Russia's largest online retailer] Wildberries; with the petrol crisis, the disruption to mobile internet, the political prisoners? Has security increased, or not?" Ukrainian Armed Forces have indeed begun targeting Wildberries warehouses deep within Russian territory.

Despite a reported decline in Vladimir Putin's domestic approval ratings, Muratov believes the Russian president maintains a firm grip on power. "Sorry, I don't believe all this talk about a split among members of the elite, about secret conspiracies. The country is run by Vladimir Putin. They're frightened of him. And this fear is reinforced in every way by his main support base: the Federal Security Service (FSB)."

While critical of his own government, Muratov holds few illusions about Western leaders. He believes Putin "knows very well the true value of European leaders. On the one hand they talk to him about human rights. He laughs out loud because, with the other hand, they sign agreements – or used to sign agreements – with Russia on trading oil, gas, diamonds…all that stuff. When they talk to Putin about European values, he truly laughs out loud. He knows the true value of people who preached to him those values."

In Russia, Muratov has been designated a 'foreign agent,' a label frequently used to penalize Kremlin critics. 'Foreign agents' face restricted rights, including bans from teaching and participating in elections, and limitations on accessing assets from property sales. The label also aims to stigmatize individuals as internal enemies.

However, Muratov appears to downplay his own pressures, choosing instead to highlight the plight of imprisoned compatriots. "What worries me most right now is that no one in the world is interested in the political prisoners who were first to speak out against the land grab in our neighbouring country," he explained.

He presented a folder containing photographs of prisoners, including the four journalists – Antonina Favorskaya, Konstantin Gabov, Sergey Karelin, and Artyom Kriger – jailed on extremism charges for alleged ties to the anti-corruption organization of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

Another photo showed Alexei Gorinov, a city councillor imprisoned for "knowingly spreading false information" about the Russian military after speaking against the war.

"And here's a wonderful pianist, Pavel Kushnir," Muratov said, describing him as "an outstanding performer of Rachmaninoff and Schubert." Kushnir was arrested for posting anti-war videos and later died in a pre-trial detention center during a hunger strike at age 39. Muratov held up a second photo: "And this is him in his coffin."

This series of photos and prison narratives underscores the dangers faced by those perceived as opponents of the authorities, highlighting the risks associated with public criticism of the government and the war.

When asked if being a Nobel Prize laureate offered any protection for his freedom of speech, Muratov replied, "This is not a question for me. Whenever you have the opportunity, ask the authorities that."

He then showed one more photo from April: "This is the newspaper's lawyer when she was waiting to get into the building. The police were searching our office. Thirteen hours it took. And they wouldn't let the lawyers in. Our managing editor Oleg Roldugin is now under house arrest."

Muratov painted a grim picture of life in Russia for government critics, yet he also found moments of hope. "We live in a time when you stay quiet. But so many people support what we do. On the streets of Moscow, my colleagues and I hear only words of gratitude. They are spoken in a whisper. But what people think is very important."

Dmitry Muratov, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, has been labeled a 'foreign agent' by Russia.