Pakistan has locked down Imran Khan's stronghold - but it could backfire

Pakistan locks down Imran Khan’s stronghold, but the move may rebound

Thousands of Khan’s supporters have been rallying for days across the province, calling for his release.

Schools were shut. The internet was partly cut off. Roads were blocked with shipping containers. And the army came into town.

Imran Khan’s party bastion, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, is now under a state of emergency, with his party’s provincial government suspended. It marks another sharp escalation in the confrontation between the former prime minister’s supporters and the Pakistani state — one that some fear could bring greater instability rather than less.

The federal government says the measure, which is permitted under the constitution, was necessary to protect the province’s residents from the threat of terrorism.

“The PTI KPK government was hand in glove with the terrorists,” federal information minister Attah Tarrar told reporters on Sunday. He gave no details or evidence, but said he would do so soon.

Two days later, there was still no further update from him — but schools had reopened in Peshawar and most other parts of the province, and internet service had been restored.

Police would not confirm any arrests, but a crackdown is clearly under way to stop protests. Most PTI leaders in the province have gone into hiding.

On Tuesday, dozens of PTI supporters marched in Bara, in Khyber district, the hometown of provincial Chief Minister Sohail Afridi. There were reports of tear gas being fired in the area.

The introduction of emergency rule in Imran Khan’s stronghold has heightened tensions with his supporters.

For many observers, the timing of Sunday’s emergency announcement is no coincidence.

Over the past week, thousands of Imran Khan’s supporters have been marching through Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where the PTI has governed for 13 years, demanding Khan’s release.

“The charitable response would be to say that it sounded disingenuous,” says Farzana Sheikh, associate fellow at Chatham House.

“I do not see the link with terrorism,” says Arifa Noor, journalist and commentator. “I’m not even sure if it was the long march itself [that led to this]. Perhaps it was the last straw or perhaps it’s just a case of saying, we don’t want to deal with the government being in the hands of an opposition party.”

The protests were led by Chief Minister Afridi, whose whereabouts remain unknown. His party says he has been arrested; the government says he is in protective custody.

Even before the march began, there had already been a crackdown.

Three of Khan’s sisters were arrested in September, accused among other things of mobilising supporters, and have remained detained ever since.

Khan has barely been seen by his family or lawyers over the past year; two of his sisters saw him in August, one in prison and another during a hospital check-up after the Supreme Court raised concerns about his health, before he was sent back to prison, where he has now been held for more than three years.

In the provincial capital Peshawar, police used shipping containers to block roads.

The PTI leader, widely believed to have lost power because of a split with Pakistan’s powerful military, has been jailed since August 2023. He has been convicted in several corruption cases, which he says are politically motivated.

With the party already weakened, why have the authorities reacted this way?

“The PTI rank and file has been becoming increasingly restless in recent months amid growing concerns about Imran Khan’s health,” says Michael Kugelman, senior South Asia fellow at the Atlantic Council.

“There is a sense that perhaps now is the time to send a very strong message to the party and make it more difficult for them to be able to put pressure on the government.”

The government has previously said Khan was breaking prison rules by using his meetings to discuss politics.

Tarar said of the state of emergency: “There was no political agenda. They could have gone on with their march,” and pointed to talks between the two sides before the decision as evidence that dialogue was attempted.

But others see it as yet another effort to curb Khan and his party.

“The government has less and less space for disagreements or dissent and they do not want to negotiate their way out of any kind of conflict,” Noor says.

Zahid Hussain, an Islamabad-based author and defence analyst, is certain about who is behind the decision.

“The balance of power is completely shifted to the military establishment,” he says.

Sheikh believes Pakistan’s military feels confident because it thinks it has a strong relationship with the White House, with its international standing boosted by its role in the US-Iran peace talks.

“The mode is very much, this is the moment, let’s seize it,” she says. “There is a sense that, we have all the cards in our hands. We can ride this out internationally.”

Ex-cricket captains urge ‘proper medical care’ for Imran Khan

Imran Khan not the only one silenced as Pakistan military stifles dissent

The cricket star and former PM dividing Pakistan

But Pakistan has plenty on its plate. Militancy is increasing. The country was ranked number one in the Global Terrorism Index 2026 as the most affected country.

It is at odds with two neighbours; it has repeatedly carried out air strikes in Afghanistan, accusing the Afghan Taliban government of sheltering militant groups, a charge it denies. It would take little to reignite its long-simmering conflict with India.

At the same time, it has pledged to help Saudi Arabia defend itself against attacks as the conflict with the Houthis has become increasingly dangerous.

Rather than solving one problem, some warn that this state of emergency could create more. It risks deepening political instability, with Islamabad taking responsibility for a province without a buffer — the provincial government — to blame.

“I would argue that this could actually backfire,” Kugelman says. “You’re playing with fire because if this move ends up adding to the anger and the discontent among so many there, then you have a very big problem on your hands.”

“It is reckless, given the challenges, multiple challenges the country is facing,” Hussain says. He fears that more of these powers could be used across Pakistan.

Trying to fight militancy with more active army operations could also bring its own dangers, Sheikh argues.

“If they’re going to launch these operations, they’re going to have to be prepared to accept casualties of members of the armed forces,” she says. If those are substantial, she adds, it could raise questions inside the military institution.

Pakistan, with its history of military coups, has seen in the past how removing elected governments, whether provincial or national, can backfire.

“It’s not that senior people in the PML-N [the party in federal government] don’t realise that some of these things can come back and haunt them in the future,” Noor says.

“Similarly I think to some extent the PTI realises that they will not be able to hold a protest and get Imran Khan out. I think that’s the most unfortunate part of this mess that we’re in, that we are going into it with our eyes wide open.

“Everybody realises that this is a train crash but somehow you can’t stop it.”