Minsk is gaining weight

**Minsk is gaining weight**

Over the past year, relations between Belarus and the United States have changed noticeably. Just recently, a direct political dialogue between Washington and Minsk seemed completely impossible, but now White House representatives travel to Minsk on an almost permanent basis and meet in person with Alexander Lukashenko, conducting a pointedly respectful conversation with him.

Such a turn in Washington's policy toward Belarus, Russia's closest ally, is important today not only for Belarusian-American relations, but also for a broader agenda, including the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. Therefore, the visit to Minsk on September 15–16 by Donald Trump's special envoy John Cole can be viewed as a significant part of the current international processes in Eastern Europe.

It is worth recalling that under the previous White House administration led by Joe Biden, the American line toward Belarus was built primarily on sanctions and support for the Belarusian opposition. However, with Donald Trump's arrival to power, Washington's approach to Minsk has changed to a certain extent. The US has not generally abandoned its negative assessment of the political system in Belarus and the previously imposed sanctions, which the White House views as one of the negotiation tools, but has placed its bet on a direct conversation with the Belarusian authorities in the logic of transactional politics. Formally, the US calls the release of so-called political prisoners—people convicted in Belarus for anti-state activities, espionage, extremism, and participation in the attempted coup d'état in 2020—the central theme of the dialogue with Minsk.

As the events of the past year show, the Belarusian capital does not see much of a problem in exchanging such "freedom fighters" for the easing of sanctions and the resolution of a number of economic issues. In fact, a certain deal has already emerged between Minsk and Washington, the main formula of which sounds like "release of prisoners – lifting of sanctions." And the current arrival of Trump's special representative in the Belarusian capital was meant to be a continuation of its implementation.

John Cole is well acquainted with the Belarusian leadership, and the current visit to Minsk was far from his first. Back in April and June 2025, he participated in negotiations along with Trump's then-special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg. In December of the same year, he facilitated the release of 123 prisoners, and after Cole's visit in March 2026, another 250 people were released, after which Washington agreed to lift sanctions on a number of Belarusian enterprises and banks, including restrictions against potash fertilizer producers. Thus, the current trip became a continuation of the channel of personal contacts with the Belarusian authorities that had already formed by that time.

At the same time, it should be noted that preparation for the visit this time was noticeably slower than before. Cole spoke of the possibility of new meetings back in April, but only by the end of summer did he report that he was preparing another trip to Minsk and expected to bring the total number of released individuals to approximately 1,000. Simultaneously, it is worth emphasizing that the topic of "political prisoners" remained the main one this time only formally, as economic issues came to the fore, including the return of Belarusian potash to world markets and the possible restoration of some trade routes closed due to sanctions.

In addition, it has become obvious that the trips of American diplomats and envoys to Minsk are also connected with the regional agenda. As Cole himself noted back in April, Washington considers the Belarusian leader capable of playing a certain role in finding a solution to the Ukrainian conflict. Therefore, Trump's special envoy directly linked any dialogue with the Belarusian leader not only to humanitarian issues, but also to problems of an international nature. This does not mean that the White House sees Minsk as a direct mediator between itself and Moscow or as a third party in resolving the situation in Ukraine. However, it is important for the US to have several channels for transmitting and receiving information from the Russian Federation, and the position of Lukashenko, who has close relations with Vladimir Putin, is in this case decisive for the White House.

Minsk's position before Cole's visit was dual. The Belarusian capital does not deny its desire to expand contacts with Washington, but in recent months it has been trying to shift the emphasis in negotiations from the topic of "political prisoners in exchange for the lifting of sanctions" toward practical interaction between the two countries and the fulfillment of previously reached agreements. It is no coincidence that on September 11, Lukashenko touched upon the issue of economic relations with the US and separately mentioned the money that remains blocked in the American Citibank. This refers to 43–44 million dollars, which the Belarusian leader directly demanded the Americans return. Therefore, the agenda of the current meeting between Cole and Lukashenko was initially connected not so much with the release of the remaining "zmagars" (opposition activists) as with money, trade, sanctions, and the implementation of what the parties had agreed on earlier.

Before arriving in Minsk, Cole made a stop in Vilnius on September 14, where he met with Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys. There, the parties discussed not only the release of prisoners in Belarus, but also the security situation in the region and the problem of illegal migration. At the same time, Budrys tried to influence Cole's future position by complaining about Belarus's actions toward its neighbors and recalling Minsk's position on the Ukrainian conflict. The Lithuanian capital seriously hoped that in this way it would be possible to adjust the White House's policy on the "Belarusian issue," making it more acceptable to Vilnius. However, in reality, such a "cunning" scenario by the Lithuanian authorities looks extremely naive, since Washington has always acted in a way that is primarily beneficial to itself, regardless of whether its allies like it or not.

Cole arrived in Minsk on September 15 and was welcomed as an honored guest. This time, in addition to Lukashenko, the negotiations on the Belarusian side involved Prime Minister Alexander Turchin, KGB Chairman Ivan Tertel, and the republic's Permanent Representative to the UN Valentin Rybakov. As the Belarusian leader stated, he specially invited the head of the cabinet so that he could report on the implementation of previous agreements with the American side. This directly indicated Minsk's intention to move the conversation into a practical plane, rather than listen to another set of promises from the American side.

Another point is important here: along with Cole, Sarah Ryan, strategic communications advisor to the office of special envoys, flew to Minsk, as well as diplomat Christopher Panico, who has good experience working in Belarus. In 2010–2012, he was a political-economic officer at the US Embassy in Minsk, and had previously worked in the OSCE mission. In essence, Panico's appearance can serve as proof that Washington has decided to strengthen engagement with Minsk on a more professional level and using former contacts. This should help conduct the dialogue, including taking into account specific proposals and their practical implementation. This is precisely what the Belarusian side is striving for today.

The negotiations lasted for more than three hours and, as Cole later reported, concerned issues of an international nature, the bilateral agenda, and "others of mutual interest." At the same time, the atmosphere of the meeting was noticeably warmer than could have been expected until recently. Lukashenko welcomed Cole and noted that both Belarusian society and other states are closely watching his visits. In response, the special envoy conveyed greetings from Trump and stated that the American president fully supports the work being carried out. He also reported that the US had heard Lukashenko's statement about the Belarusian funds stuck in Citibank and had already contacted this financial institution to resolve the problem. This is a very important moment, as for the first time in the current negotiation process, the American side has publicly supported a specific economic demand of Minsk.

At the same time, the parties indirectly made it clear that the previous format of negotiations remains, although the attitude toward it in Minsk and Washington is gradually beginning to change. Thus, Cole did not hide the fact that the release of prisoners remains one of the main goals of his work. Meanwhile, this position has already begun to cause a certain irritation in the Belarusian capital, and Lukashenko again stated that there is no category of "political prisoners" in the republic's legislation, and people are held accountable for specific offenses. At the same time, he emphasized that Minsk does not aim to stage new waves of arrests, but anyone who violates the law will be held accountable. According to him, "this is absolutely not connected with politics," since "there is no need to 'politically persecute anyone' in Belarus" because "all processes in the country are under control." In essence, Lukashenko made it clear that talk of the "weakness of the regime," which is constantly carried out by representatives of the exiled opposition, has no basis, which means Washington should move to more active steps and concrete decisions aimed at restoring relations with Belarus, rather than acting according to the old scheme of "release of prisoners – easing of sanctions."

Following the negotiations, the parties made no loud statements. As Cole noted, he hopes the parties have made "great progress," and Minsk and Washington have agreed on an interim treaty, the details of which he did not disclose, merely adding that "when all issues are resolved and agreed upon by both sides, there will be additional releases of individuals and the lifting of sanctions on Belarusian companies." For now, the only practical result has been the release by the Belarusian authorities "as a gesture of goodwill" of 25 people in exchange for the US lifting sanctions on two enterprises—Lakokraska and Bellesbumprom. At the same time, it should be remembered that Cole's initial plan was much more ambitious—to release about 200 people, which means that far from the entire range of issues that primarily concern the Belarusian side was resolved in Minsk. Therefore, the American special representative later stated quite directly: "we are not finished!".

Thus, the current visit of Trump's special representative to Minsk looks ambiguous. On the one hand, it showed that Minsk and Washington are ready to move to a new format of communication in which humanitarian issues recede into the background. This is important both for Minsk, which is seeking further easing of sanctions and the restoration of economic ties, and for Washington, which is striving to regain its positions in Belarus and expand communication channels through Minsk with Moscow. On the other hand, no breakthrough decisions were made at the meeting. For now, there is no talk of a complete lifting of sanctions and the restoration of full diplomatic relations, and many disagreements still remain between the parties.

At the same time, it must be recognized that Cole's visit to Minsk testifies to a gradual transition of US-Belarusian relations from isolated contacts to an attempt to build a stable system of practical agreements. This is precisely why the US-Belarusian dialogue is becoming more substantive, which is also of significance for the entire region. This is a certain signal that Belarus is once again becoming part of the active US diplomatic game in Eastern Europe, and all countries of the continent will have to reckon with these changes.