Liberals sweep three seats in boost for Carney after trade tensions with US
One seat was taken from the Conservatives, indicating public support for the PM after a confrontation with Donald Trump.
The Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, secured all three parliamentary special elections held in Canada on Monday. This outcome signals continued public confidence in the prime minister during his second year in office, even after recent trade disputes with the United States.
Braeden Caley, who won the North Vancouver-Capilano seat, was among the three successful Liberal candidates on Monday.
These elections were necessitated by the resignations of three Members of Parliament. The most significant outcome was Carney's party capturing a Québec seat that had previously been held by an opposition Conservative. In the other two contests, in Ontario and British Columbia, the Liberals retained their seats as anticipated by pollsters.
Carney has seen an increase in his approval ratings following his decision to terminate trade negotiations with the US, asserting that Canada's southern neighbor had proposed "unfair" terms.
The prime minister extended his congratulations to the three victorious Liberal candidates in a post on X. Reflecting on the broader challenges facing his administration, he commented: "Canada is being tested in a changing world, and Canadians are up for it."
These results ensure that Carney will maintain his narrow majority in the House of Commons.
Canadian media projected a substantial victory for the Liberals in the Québec district of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord. Daniel Gobeil, a dairy farmer and Liberal candidate, will become the district's new MP, having garnered over half of the total vote. He outpolled the Bloc Québécois and the Conservatives, who finished second and third, respectively. The previous election in this seat had been a close three-way contest.
Addressing his supporters in French, Gobeil stated that "this victory means we can maintain Canadian unity all across the country," as reported by CBC.
Elsewhere, Tanveer Shahnawaz triumphed in his race in Beaches-East York, Ontario, and Braeden Caley emerged victorious in North Vancouver-Capilano, British Columbia.
The Conservatives have struggled to narrow the gap with the Liberals since their defeat in last year's federal election, with recent polls indicating they are trailing Carney's party by approximately 10 points. Since the April 2025 election, four Conservative members have defected to the governing Liberals, and three others have either resigned or announced their intentions to do so.
Richard Martel, the former Conservative MP for the Quebec constituency that held Monday's by-election, stepped down last month after Carney appointed him to Canada's Senate. Senators in Canada are not elected.
The loss of Martel's seat to the Liberals represents another setback for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who secured a leadership test in January by a significant margin but has faced questions regarding his capacity to navigate Canada's current political landscape.
Meanwhile, the approval rating of Carney's government has risen by four points in recent weeks, as has the prime minister's personal popularity, according to figures released Monday by Canadian pollster Abacus Data.
David Coletto, founder of Abacus Data, attributes this surge to US President Donald Trump's unpopularity among Canadians, as well as the country's unified support for Carney's decision to withdraw from trade discussions with the White House.
This trend is most pronounced in Quebec, Coletto noted on Monday, where "Carney's personal rating is stronger there than anywhere else in the country." Quebec is anticipated to be one of the provinces most significantly impacted by Trump's new 50% tariffs on various Canadian goods, which took effect after trade talks collapsed earlier this month.
In a recent report, global forecasting firm Oxford Economics warned that Quebec could experience a loss of C$2 billion ($1.4 billion; £1 billion) in annual output by 2028.