Inflation expectations of the population and businesses fell to a historical minimum

Inflation expectations of the population and businesses have fallen to historic lows. According to the results of a survey conducted by the Central Bank in August, the population's inflation expectations decreased by 0.3 percentage points compared to July, standing at nearly 9.8 percent. Business expectations stood at 9.6 percent, decreasing by 0.2 percentage points on a monthly basis.

Respondents identified the rising cost of utility services (53 percent), increases in fuel and energy resource prices (52 percent), and rising transport costs (32 percent) as the main factors shaping the inflationary environment.

Among those surveyed, the highest inflation expectations were observed among representatives of the IT sector (11.4 percent). The lowest expectations were expressed by agricultural workers and students (8.7 percent). Among business entities, the most pessimistic expectations belonged to the transport and education sectors (10.9 percent), while the most optimistic expectations were in the handicraft sector (7 percent).

By region, the highest indicators of the population's inflation expectations were recorded in Fergana region (11.7 percent), the city of Tashkent (11.4 percent), and Surxondaryo region (10.9 percent). The lowest results were observed in Jizzakh (8.1 percent) and Khorezm (8.4 percent) regions.

Citizens with a monthly income of 30 million soums and above expressed the highest forecasts for price increases — an average of 15.8 percent. The lowest inflation expectations were recorded by those with incomes up to 2 million soums (7.9 percent), as well as in the range of 2–4 million soums (9 percent).