German elections under way which could decide fate of Chancellor Merz

German elections are under way that could determine the fate of Chancellor Merz

Local elections are being held on Sunday in two German states, and they could intensify political pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Opinion polls in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern indicate that Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) faces the risk of heavy defeats, which would prompt further questions about the chancellor's future.

These elections follow the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party's major win in Saxony-Anhalt two weeks ago, when the CDU saw its vote cut in half.

There has been speculation in Germany that Merz could be replaced as chancellor before the end of his term unless the CDU's fortunes improve.

Polls suggest Merz's conservatives could lose control in Berlin as they battle Die Linke (The Left) for first place.

In the north-eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, meanwhile, the CDU has only just been above the 5% threshold required for a party to enter the state parliament. That could mean its worst result ever in a state election.

How did it reach this point after only 16 months in office? Friedrich Merz is having to account for the falling popularity of his own party, while the political force he sought to oppose - the AfD - keeps growing.

Some branches of the AfD are classified by domestic intelligence as right-wing extremist, a label the party strongly rejects.

But its anti-immigration, Russian-friendly, Germany-first platform has found fertile ground in the country's former communist east.

The AfD hopes to build on its recent landslide victory in Saxony-Anhalt by finishing first in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

However, the centre-left SPD has mounted a late recovery and is now in contention for the top spot through its lead candidate, Manuela Schwesig.

Schwesig, who is currently the state premier, is trying to gather the anti-AfD vote as she presents herself as the "Die Frau gegen Blau" - "Woman against Blue", referring to the AfD's party colours.

Yet her local popularity contrasts sharply with the much weaker position of her national party, which is tied in an uneasy coalition with Merz's CDU.

In a queue for a campaign event in Neubrandenburg, AfD supporter Reinhart says the traditional parties are being swept away.

"Not only in Germany. In Italy, in France, in Great Britain. Everywhere the traditional parties go down."

He smiles when asked what he thinks of Merz, saying: "Oh well everyone thinks the same about him.

"He is arrogant, out of touch, not on the same level as the general public."

Merz's supporters say the chancellor has faced difficult global developments and that many of the country's problems were inherited.

But whatever confidence people once had in his ability to solve those problems is apparently fading - and, in blunt truth, it can be difficult to find voters who like him.

The former corporate lawyer's shift to the right on issues such as immigration has failed to weaken AfD support while also alienating people further to the left.

His direct communication style has also irritated many, including his dismissal of "work-life balance", when he told Germans they need to work more and take less sick leave.

Supporters would say he is prepared to deliver the medicine the country needs, even if people dislike the taste.

But the country's long-struggling economy, high energy costs and heated debates over immigration are feeding a sense of national gloom.

Earlier this week, the leaders of eight German states backed Merz and said restoring trust in the CDU depended on "listening ​and taking political action, not in debates ​over personnel".

Still, although no one in his party has openly challenged Merz for the top post, murmurs of dissatisfaction have grown louder.

Martin Rohloff, the CDU candidate for Neubrandenburg, says Merz lacks the "Fingerspitzengefühl, the feeling for the small persons".

Rohloff believes there are people with "better feelings" toward the public than the chancellor.

"Maybe he wants the right things," Rohloff says, but "he cannot communicate well".

Asked whether Merz should go, he says it is not an easy question, but: "If I have to answer yes or no, I would say yes. There are other people who maybe have better feelings for the public."

Merz has promised to continue as his coalition government seeks to push through a package of economic, tax and welfare reforms that are finally due before parliament this autumn.

But Sunday's vote poses a danger for the chancellor - that he may already be out of time.

The chancellor is reportedly due to meet senior party figures in Berlin on Sunday evening after already cancelling a planned trip to New York next week, in an apparent attempt to contain the crisis.

A firm supporter of Ukraine, the fall of Friedrich Merz would bring further instability to a continent already shaken by warnings of increased Russian aggression.