Five reasons why Republicans lost so badly

Five reasons Republicans lost so badly

Democrats surged to victory in the US midterm elections, seizing control of Congress.

Although the party of the sitting president usually has a rough night in these contests, the size of the Republican loss is being seen as a clear rebuke of Donald Trump’s two years in the White House.

From furious voters to an unpopular president, here are five reasons Republicans lost so many seats.

Across the country, voters have been struggling with the rising cost of basic necessities. That frustration was obvious on the ground in key races.

“Gas prices, grocery prices, everything’s going up,” one North Carolina voter told the BBC before the elections, adding that she had changed her vote from Republican to Democratic this time.

Prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, pushed higher by fuel and energy costs. Average US retail diesel prices in early October were just under the record $6.52 (£4.83) per gallon reached in September, according to government figures.

Nearly eight in 10 voters, 79%, said inflation had caused severe or moderate hardship for them and their family over the past year, according to voter poll data.

And more than six in 10 respondents blamed Trump, saying they believed prices were higher than usual because of the president’s policies.

A major driver of the price surge has been the war with Iran that the US and Israel launched in February.

Fuel prices then jumped after Tehran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation, choking off a vital route for the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

US consumers have been paying for it at the pump ever since.

The war has been widely unpopular with most Americans. For Maga Republicans, it also felt like a betrayal of Trump’s America First message, in which he promised there would be no more wars.

About six in 10, or 63%, of those surveyed in a voter poll said the US made the wrong choice in taking military action against Iran.

Separately, three-quarters of voters, 74%, said the conflict was a crucial or major factor in how they voted for Congress.

The morning after the election, Trump acknowledged the war had contributed to the defeat, but he told Fox in an interview that he had no option but to intervene to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.

The size and reach of the Democratic wave was helped by strong candidates who seemed genuine, especially in traditional Republican strongholds.

They kept to a disciplined message about the cost of living and access to health care.

Former teacher James Talarico and pastor Adam Hamilton also spoke about their faith in ways that resonated in Texas and Kansas, respectively.

In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews pulled off a surprise upset. A former paediatrician, she focused on health care affordability in a country where many believe the system is broken.

Former public health official Abdul El-Sayed, who won in Michigan to hold the seat for Democrats, made getting “money out of politics, money in your pocket” a central slogan.

Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, who won re-election in Georgia, made the cost of living and corruption central to his message. The 39-year-old’s comfortable win in a state Trump has carried twice will only intensify speculation about a 2028 presidential bid.

Even Trump praised the Democrats, telling Fox News they “did a good job”.

By contrast, some Republican candidates, including Ken Paxton in Texas, were criticised for running weak campaigns that did not focus enough on voters’ concerns.

Two of the issues voters were most unhappy about — soaring prices and the Iran War — were directly tied to the president.

His approval ratings had even slipped among Republican voters, leaving some of the states that backed him in 2024 especially exposed.

He urged voters to picture him on the ballot in an effort to energise his supporters.

But after more than a decade as the dominant figure in American politics, some see these results as proof that the shine may be fading from Trump’s brand.

Against a backdrop of growing anger, making himself the centre of the Republican campaign was risky and appears to have backfired.

In the months before the vote, polling showed many Americans wanted Trump to pay more attention to their concerns about soaring prices.

In his final campaign speech on Monday in Washington DC, he spoke at length about his controversial renovation project of the Reflecting Pool behind him.

Two years ago, a shift toward Republicans among some Hispanic and black voters helped Trump secure a decisive victory. That appears to have reversed in these midterms.

Democrats won all three House races in the heavily Hispanic congressional districts along the Texas-Mexico border.

Majority-Hispanic counties shifted more than 22 percentage points against Republican Senate candidates compared with the 2024 presidential election, according to a New York Times analysis.

Data reporter Jeff Adelson said the shift is larger than in any other major demographic group in the country.

The change comes amid widespread anger over immigration enforcement, with a majority, 56%, of Americans saying they have an unfavourable view of ICE, according to the Pew Research Center.

Counties with a black majority also moved significantly toward Democratic candidates in Senate races.

The Senate race is extremely close in Mississippi, which has the largest share of black voters of any US state at around 37%.

If Scott Colom wins, he would become the first Democrat elected to the Senate in Mississippi since 1982.