Farmers warn shoppers face smaller and more expensive vegetables due to hot weather

Shoppers may face smaller and more expensive vegetables due to hot weather, farmers are warning. Experts suggest the UK's cereals and oilseed harvest could be the worst since records began in 1984.

This year's harvest could be the worst on record, as farmers caution that the exceptionally dry spring and summer might lead to "shrinkflation" in UK supermarkets. England and Wales experienced their driest July in 190 years, according to the Met Office, and a drought has been declared across large parts of the country.

The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) think tank stated that the UK's cereals and oilseed harvest could be 2.5 million tonnes less than earlier forecasts. Tim O'Malley, chairman of Nationwide Produce, described the situation as "as bad as its ever been," predicting that consumers will likely encounter higher prices or smaller vegetables in supermarkets.

The harvest of barley, oats, and rapeseed—ingredients used in beer, breakfast cereals, and vegetable oil—is projected to fall to just 19.5 million tonnes, marking the lowest yield since records began in 1984. This figure is below the previous low of 19.8 million tonnes in 2020 and would result in an estimated £390 million in lost revenue for farmers, according to the ECIU. These crops are also vital for feeding livestock, making them crucial throughout much of the food chain.

O'Malley noted that consumers could also feel the impact in the vegetable aisle, where grocers are likely to substitute smaller produce at the same price, a phenomenon known as shrinkflation. "I think we're going to see shrinkflation," he told Radio 5 Live's Wake Up to Money.

"The problem we're going to have this year is a massive reduction in yield and major quality issues," O'Malley explained. "They will go for smaller sizes. They will let you have a bit more on quality. Like I said, we've got crop with stress or we've got quality issues. So you will see a smaller crop."

He indicated that supermarkets will "do everything" to maintain current prices, but added, "eventually they will probably have to come to the party and increase the price, particularly if they start importing." Grocers are already increasing imports due to poor domestic conditions.

"We're importing broccoli and iceberg from Spain at this time of year, which in August [is] unheard of. I think we're going to see more of that, unfortunately," O'Malley said. He concluded, "Loud and clear, it's grim out there. I think it's as bad as it's ever been… Every record is being broken. The difference in this year and last year, last year we had four heat waves. But in between them we had a bit of rain."

Farmers typically source water for their crops and livestock during summer from stored winter rainfall on-site and by extracting it from natural sources—a process called abstraction, which can be from groundwater or surface water like rivers and streams. This summer has seen significantly low rainfall, impacting the available water.

Half of England and all of Wales have been declared to be in drought conditions by the Environment Agency. Wales has received only 8% of its average rainfall this month, while England has received 7%, with some areas in southern England seeing as little as 1%. High temperatures and repeated heatwaves have also increased evaporation rates, particularly affecting rivers.

Climate change is expected to bring more severe, frequent, and longer-lasting heatwaves to UK summers in the coming years, potentially leading to further water shortages for farmers.

Tom Lancaster, land, food, and farming analyst at the ECIU, commented: "At the start of spring farmers were hopeful of a better year, but the dry April and July and record-breaking heat have left farmers facing down the barrel of a third awful harvest in a row. Farming is now the sector most exposed to climate change and the risks and damage that it brings."

Martin Lines, head of the Nature Friendly Farming Network and a farmer from Cambridgeshire, described this year's harvest as "a real kick in the teeth." He stated, "After two terrible harvests in a row, the crops this year were looking good and full of potential coming out of spring, only for months of drought and heatwaves to destroy any prospect of a decent harvest. I've never known it this dry and hot on our farm. Even farmers I know who were sceptical of climate change are now saying they're really worried about the future of their businesses and production, it's just been completely brutal for our industry."