External shocks have not yet directly impacted Uzbekistan, says Central Bank head
Rising global oil and food prices have not yet had a direct impact on Uzbekistan, stated Central Bank Chairman Timur Ishmetov. However, the regulator is monitoring potential secondary effects and is prepared to act both if inflation continues to decline and if upside risks intensify.
On August 24, Timur Ishmetov, Chairman of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, stated at the Silk Road Finance & Technology Forum in Tashkent that external shocks have not yet had a direct impact on Uzbekistan. He stated that the Central Bank must be prepared to respond to both a further slowdown in inflation and the realization of risks of an increase, as reported by Gazeta.
"The work of the Central Bank is always associated with risks. They always exist. If there were no risks, perhaps the central bank would not be needed at all," Timur Ishmetov emphasized.
He noted that the global economy operates under conditions of constant uncertainty and multiple external shocks.
"Therefore, I think we need to move from simple risk management to being better prepared for constant shocks and uncertainty. We need to focus on resilience," the Central Bank governor stated.
To enhance the resilience of the financial system, the Central Bank plans to increase protective buffers and strengthen financial stability, he added.
"All these external shocks, especially what's happening now with oil and food prices, have not yet directly impacted Uzbekistan, but we are closely monitoring the situation," Ishmetov noted.
The regulator is also assessing the risk of so-called secondary effects, when an initial external shock begins to spread through the economy through costs, expectations, and domestic prices.
"Therefore, the Central Bank must be prepared to act in both directions—regardless of whether inflation continues to decline or whether upward risks materialize. We must be prepared to act decisively in both directions and, in any case, continue to fulfill our mandate," Timur Ishmetov stated.
As a reminder, fuel imports into Uzbekistan fell sharply in June after high volumes in April and May: gasoline imported exceeded last year's levels (but was a third lower than in May), diesel fuel imported almost 19 times less, and kerosene imported 12.5 times less. The average import price of gasoline and kerosene continued to rise.
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), jet fuel prices rose sharply in early 2026 following the escalation of tensions around Iran and the disruption of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. By the end of May, prices had declined from their April highs but remained significantly above their late February levels.