Democrats won on affordability. Can they deliver it?

Democrats won on affordability. Can they deliver it?

The outgoing Republican agriculture commissioner for Texas Sid Miller says ranchers 'feel betrayed'

Two business owners, living on opposite sides of the country, are after the same thing for different reasons.

In Texas, Kim Hanks, who owns Tillies, a hotel, restaurant and spa business near Austin, says higher grocery and fuel prices are forcing her to increase wages for her 300 employees.

"It's been such a moving target for us on affordability," she told the BBC World Service.

In Indiana, Danny Reynolds, who runs Stephenson's of Elkhart, a clothing and bridalwear store, just wants Washington to sort itself out.

"My hope is that we can just find some consistency, some working together," he said.

Democrats say they heard both messages.

"We ran on affordability, we won on affordability, and now it's our job to govern on affordability," said House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries on MS Now's Morning Joe.

But the hard part starts now. Democrats will control Congress. Donald Trump still has the power to stop their plans.

The size of the victory was larger than most analysts predicted, with at least seven Republican-held Senate seats flipping.

At the heart of the outcome was a clear mood: only 21% of Americans are happy with the country's direction, even though the economy appears strong on paper.

Voters were not focused on the data. They were looking at grocery bills, electricity bills and the price at the petrol pump.

In rural Texas, rising costs were also hitting Republicans in their own territory. Sid Miller, the outgoing Republican agriculture commissioner, told me ranchers are receiving $300 to $500 less for each head of cattle, while also dealing with record fertiliser costs.

"They felt betrayed," he said.

This was more than a blue wave. It was a vote about the cost of living. So what can Democrats actually do about it?

Under the slogan "Fighting for an Affordable America," Democrats say healthcare is their top priority.

They want to restore the extra financial assistance that made health insurance cheaper under the Affordable Care Act and roll back the cuts to Medicaid signed by President Trump in 2025.

Next are tariffs and energy. Democrats want to eliminate the president's import taxes, which they say add thousands of dollars a year to the cost of groceries, fertiliser and building materials.

They also want to end the war in Iran, which they connect to petrol prices averaging $4.18 a gallon, up by nearly 40%.

Housing comes next. Some Democrats want to build four million new homes over the next decade.

On taxes, they want billionaires to pay more and child tax credits to be increased for families.

It's a long list. But how much of it can they really deliver?

Investor Ken Fisher, founder of Fisher Investments, puts it plainly:

"Congress can't get anything past a presidential veto. President Trump can't get anything he wants."

He says the likely result is two years of relative calm on the legislative and regulatory front.

In other words, winning Congress does not give Democrats a free hand. President Trump can still block legislation, and overriding a presidential veto requires a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate.

What Democrats can and can't do with their new power after taking Congress

For voters hoping for lower bills, that may be a frustrating outcome. They did not vote for gridlock.

Consider tariffs. Trump is unlikely to give up a trade policy that is central to his agenda. Democrats will need Republican backing if they want to change it.

Bernard Yaros, deputy chief US economist at Oxford Economics, expects the average tariff rate on imports to remain around 10% for the rest of Trump's term.

And there is another complication.

Tariffs are bringing in more money for the government. Import taxes made up just over 1% of federal revenue in 2024. This year, they account for more than 5%.

That rising contribution to government income, Yaros argues, will make tariffs "tough for a future administration to fully dismantle."

Still, there are deals to be made.

President Trump told CNBC he could work with Democrats on "many more things than people understand".

Healthcare could be one of them.

Yaros sees the possibility of a major political trade-off: Democrats agree to extend Republican tax cuts in exchange for restoring health insurance subsidies. But he does not expect a deal until late 2027, with the economic benefits arriving in 2028. That is a long time to wait for anyone struggling with bills now.

Democrats could also increase pressure on businesses.

Henrietta Treyz of consultants Veda Partners says Democrats will scrutinise companies that passed tariff costs on to customers.

After the Supreme Court ruling in February, she says, the question will be: "Did you turn around, take that tariff rebate, and then lower prices for consumers?"

Companies will also be asked: "What did you get in exchange?"

Democrats, she adds, will "pick and choose very carefully."

In the Senate, Ron Wyden, the Oregon Democrat set to chair the Finance Committee, has summed up his approach in five words: "affordability for us, accountability for them."

He says he will use the committee to "reassert congressional authority" over trade policy. Insurers, drugmakers and banks should expect to be called in to explain themselves.

And some of the biggest changes may come closer to home. State governors and regulators have a role in electricity prices, while local officials decide where new homes can be built.

Democrats have won governorships in Texas, Ohio and Georgia, where the rising cost of electricity for data centres is already a worry.

The toughest test may be something Democrats cannot solve with a new law.

The price of petrol, diesel and fertiliser will depend heavily on what happens in the war with Iran. And forecasters disagree about what happens next.

Oxford Economics warns that with the election over, further escalation "appears more likely," because petrol prices will no longer be as much of a political concern for the president.

And here is the awkward part. If prices fall, Democrats may find it hard to claim the credit. If they rise, they may share the blame.

There is also an immediate test. Government funding runs out after 11 December, and the odds of another shutdown look uncomfortably high.

Democrats won the argument. Now they have to prove they can make life cheaper.