ANALYSIS: Western missiles will help Ukraine - but won't win the war

ANALYSIS: Western Missiles: Aiding Ukraine, Not Guaranteeing Victory

Prime Minister Andy Burnham met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on Monday.

The recent decisions by France and the UK to share the technological specifications for building Scalp/Storm Shadow missiles with Ukraine represent a significant gesture. This move signals a willingness among some Western nations to transfer their expertise and knowledge to bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities.

However, this alone is unlikely to dramatically alter the war's trajectory. Scalp and Storm Shadow missiles have already been supplied to Kyiv by both Britain and France and have been deployed against military targets within Russia.

Burnham is set to provide long-range missile blueprints to Zelensky during his visit to Kyiv.

These weapons, developed in the 1990s, are not new and come with a hefty price tag of approximately £1 million per unit. Their production relies on intricate global supply chains and has historically occurred at relatively low volumes during peacetime, in the hundreds rather than thousands. Even with the blueprints, Ukraine may face challenges in sourcing components, and manufacturing these cruise missiles could take months, possibly years.

Attempting to replicate Western weapons production during wartime is not a viable strategy for winning a conflict, a realization now shared even by NATO nations. Britain and many of its allies have traditionally focused on producing small quantities of sophisticated, expensive missiles, which would quickly be depleted in any prolonged engagement. In 2021, General Ben Hodges, former head of the US Army in Europe, noted that a NATO wargame saw the UK military exhaust key weapons within days.

A shift in this mindset is evident in the UK military's decision to cease purchasing Storm Shadow missiles for its own use. Instead, under Project Brakestop, the UK is developing its own long-range cruise missiles, free of foreign components and costing less than half the price of a Storm Shadow. Project Brakestop is proceeding at an accelerated pace, with the UK aiming to have a new cruise missile ready by the end of the year and promising to supply this new weapon to Ukraine.

Ukraine itself has demonstrated to the world the efficacy of producing relatively inexpensive, mass-produced weapons, which are essential for a protracted conflict. At the war's outset, its armed forces relied on older Cold War-era Soviet weaponry. While a gradual influx of Western weapons aided adaptation, Ukraine now produces 70% of its own armaments.

A key factor has been Ukraine's rapid advancement in drone technology, encompassing everything from small First Person View (FPV) one-way attack drones for frontline use to larger, long-range drones capable of striking deep into Russian territory. Kyiv is on track to manufacture 10 million drones by the end of this year, achieving this more affordably than Western counterparts by utilizing mass-produced Chinese components. In contrast, NATO allies' equivalent drones can be twice as expensive due to efforts to avoid Chinese parts.

Nevertheless, Ukraine still requires certain weapons that it struggles to produce independently, ranging from fast fighter jets to the most pressing need: interceptors for Russian ballistic missiles. The most effective weapon for this purpose is the US-made Patriot interceptor. Ukraine has nearly depleted its supply, and America's conflict in Iran has further constrained availability. These missiles are also expensive, at around £3 million each, and production rates have been slow. The US plans to increase production from approximately 600 Patriot missiles per year to 2,000, but this will take several years.

Last month, President Trump indicated a willingness to share Patriot technology with Ukraine but has since retracted that statement. Even with approval, it would take time for Ukraine to manufacture Patriots independently—some estimate at least a year. Ukraine would also be reliant on the same sophisticated components that are in high global demand.

Ukraine has initiated Project Freya, a program to develop its own interceptor missiles with European support. However, building a high-speed missile capable of intercepting another missile traveling at thousands of miles per hour presents immense technological challenges, making it both costly and time-consuming.

Ukraine's military and its weapons manufacturers have proven to be quick learners. One of its companies, Fire Point, is developing its own ballistic missiles, which it hopes will be ready for deployment next year. However, Russia has already escalated its ballistic missile production to approximately one hundred per month.

Developing sophisticated weapons is an expensive and time-intensive endeavor, and Ukraine is currently short on both time and financial resources.