A Paralympian vs a former TV news anchor - and other US Senate races to watch

A Paralympian versus a former TV news anchor — and other US Senate races to watch

Opponents in Iowa: Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson

Millions of Americans are set to determine the future of the Republican-led Congress in a midterm election that will have major consequences for President Donald Trump's final two years in office.

Attention is focused on a small number of Senate contests that will decide who controls the coveted upper chamber.

If Democrats gain four seats, they would take control — and with it the ability to curb Trump's agenda, block his judicial picks and scrutinise his administration.

Billions of dollars are being spent across the 35 races nationwide, but only a few are truly competitive.

The independent elections analyst Cook Political Report classifies seven Senate races as toss-ups.

Below, we look at the figures drawing attention in these closely followed battles.

This contest has been clouded by controversy over a second candidate named Dan Sullivan appearing on the ballot. The Republican senator of that name is facing strong opposition from Mary Peltola and says she brought in his namesake to mislead voters, an allegation she denies.

Dan Sullivan is seeking a third term against Alaska Native Mary Peltola

This race could end up being the decisive state that determines which party controls the chamber if, as expected, Alaska is among the last states to produce a result.

Peltola, a former House member and the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, has campaigned on "fish, family, freedom" and has criticised Sullivan's record as Alaska's natural resources commissioner.

Sullivan, a two-term senator and longtime Marine Corps reservist who also served as Alaska's attorney general, has accused Peltola's campaign of ties to an effort to confuse Republican voters that led to a second man named Dan Sullivan entering the race.

The Peltola campaign denies any connection, though the matter is now part of a state investigation and a Justice Department lawsuit, which was rejected by a judge on Sunday.

Alaska's ranked-choice voting system adds another layer of uncertainty, and the state has historically been hard to poll, with surveys often undercounting Republican support.

Sullivan, 61, only retired from the US Marines in 2024 after a 30-year career that included deployments to Afghanistan and the Middle East. Peltola, 53, grew up fishing salmon with her father and later became the first person born in the state to represent it in Congress.

Susan Collins is one of the few Republican senators who voted to convict Trump during his 2021 impeachment, and she has repeatedly outperformed her party in this Democratic-leaning state, in part by casting herself as a maverick. Her opponent, Troy Jackson, is drawing on his background as a logger to convince blue-collar Mainers that he understands them, and he is hoping time is finally running out for one of US politics' survivors.

Susan Collins, the incumbent, faces logger Troy Jackson in Maine

Collins is banking on her centrist image to win over independent-minded voters in a state that reliably backs Democrats in presidential elections.

Her campaign will now test whether Republicans can win by keeping their distance from Trump.

Seeking a sixth term, Collins entered the midterm cycle as one of the most exposed Republican incumbents running for re-election.

But she has benefited from turmoil on the Democratic side involving Graham Platner, who was eventually replaced as the party nominee by Jackson, a former president of the Maine state senate.

Both Jackson and Collins oppose Trump's tariffs on Canada, aware of the effect they are having on this border state. Unlike Collins, however, Jackson supports abolishing the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency (ICE).

Collins, 73, began her political career straight out of college in the 1970s and entered the US Senate in 1997. Jackson, 58, is a logger who became politically active after helping lead a protest to stop lower-paid workers from Canada entering Maine.

James Talarico is trying to end a decades-long Democratic losing streak in Texas — and show that one of the Republicans' strongest states could be competitive in the 2028 presidential election. His race against Ken Paxton has become the most expensive Senate contest ever.

Trump ally Ken Paxton (L) faces former teacher James Talarico (R) in the Texas race

Republican Paxton knows his party has been winning statewide elections in Texas for more than 30 years.

Texas state representative James Talarico, a former schoolteacher and Presbyterian seminary student, is the latest Democrat hoping to break his party's long run of defeats.

Texas Republicans are confronting a difficult mix of headwinds. The national political climate is challenging for conservatives, and several state issues — including data centre construction and aggressive immigration enforcement — have worked against them. On top of that is the controversial figure of Paxton.

The campaign has been bitter, with Talarico focusing on Paxton's 2023 impeachment by the Republican-controlled state House of Representatives over alleged corruption, bribery and abuse of power. Paxton denied the accusations and was later acquitted by the state Senate, calling the impeachment a "politically motivated sham from the beginning".

Backed by more than $170m from tech billionaire Elon Musk, Paxton has tried to portray Talarico as a liberal out of step with Texans on transgender rights, law enforcement, immigration and energy policy.

A Democratic win here could suggest that America's second-largest electoral prize in a presidential race may be within reach in 2028 — an idea that could significantly alter the country's political map.

Before entering public life, Paxton spent 14 years starting and growing his own law firm. He served in the state House and Senate before becoming Texas's top legal officer.

Talarico taught at a middle school in San Antonio, in a neighbourhood he has described as one of the poorest in the state. He has studied theology and calls Pope Leo a "spiritual hero".

This is one of the nastiest races, with left-wing candidate Abdul El-Sayed trying to keep this vital seat in Democratic hands. He is facing Mike Rogers, a Republican former FBI agent who received a surprise endorsement from El-Sayed's defeated Democratic opponent, adding to the bitterness that has defined the contest from the outset.

Former public health official El-Sayed (L) will take on former congressman Rogers (R) in Michigan

A doctor and public health official, El-Sayed is among the most left-wing Senate nominees in this election cycle.

He backs a government-run health insurance system and the abolition of ICE. His strong criticism of Israel has caused friction within the party.

Rogers, who stresses his military and intelligence credentials, has kept Trump's backing despite criticising his Canada tariffs and his Russia diesel deal.

He has also broken with the president by calling for a swift end to the war with Iran. El-Sayed would be the first Muslim ever elected to the US Senate.

In addition to attacking him over his politics, Trump and Rogers have tried to connect him to the Muslim Brotherhood; El-Sayed has condemned the group.

The president has also referred to 9/11 and even called him a "jihadist" without offering any evidence, triggering backlash and accusations of Islamophobia.

El-Sayed, 41, was born and raised in Michigan before studying medicine in the US and UK and later working in the field. Rogers, 63, served in the US Army and the FBI before entering Congress and becoming a prominent supporter of US surveillance policy.

Trump travelled to Iowa on the final day of his campaign rallies, underlining its importance. Polls show a toss-up between Republican and former TV news host Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, who won gold in basketball at two Paralympic Games.

Ashley Hinson, once a local news reporter, is facing former basketball player Josh Turek in Iowa

Farms, tariffs and Trump have all become central issues in this closely watched race.

Hinson has slightly distanced herself from the president, urging him to end the war with Iran and breaking with him on easing beef tariffs, while still defending Trump's wider tariff agenda as important.

Turek, meanwhile, says Trump's tariffs have caused "farmageddon" in the largely rural state. He has also tried to persuade voters that the war in Iran has driven up fuel and fertiliser prices.

Hinson has portrayed Turek as someone who would vote like an "East Coast liberal".

The two have also clashed over taxes, social security and immigration. The last time a Democrat won a federal election in Iowa was almost 20 years ago.

Hinson, 43, is a former local news reporter who says her journalism background helps her understand the concerns of the state's farmers and small businesses. Turek, 47, was born with spina bifida, underwent multiple surgeries and later represented the USA in wheelchair basketball at four Paralympic Games, winning gold twice.

In brief:

A Democratic win in Kansas would overturn 94 years of history — the last time this Midwestern state elected a Democratic senator was 1932. Senator Roger Marshall is the Republican trying to avoid a humiliating defeat, while first-time candidate and Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton is the Democrat trying to make history.

In Kansas, both incumbent Roger Marshall (L) and challenger Adam Hamilton (R) stress that they are fifth-generation Kansans

Marshall has closely aligned himself with Trump as a pro-farmer candidate.

Hamilton, who once considered running as an independent, has presented himself as someone who can bridge the partisan divide. He has largely campaigned on lowering costs and protecting access to healthcare.

Marshall has tried to attack Hamilton's record as a pastor, calling him "too woke" for the conservative state.

Marshall, meanwhile, has faced scrutiny since reports emerged that he sued patients who could not pay their medical bills. He told Fox News the report was a hit job by the left media and senior Democrats.

The close race is widely seen as a potentially troubling sign for Republicans.

A Hamilton victory would be interpreted as evidence of growing dissatisfaction with Trump's policies — especially on the economy — in territory once considered safe for the party.

Both Marshall, 66, and Hamilton, 62, emphasise that they are fifth-generation Kansans and deeply connected to local issues. Marshall worked as an obstetrician for 25 years and delivered about 5,000 babies, while Hamilton founded a church that became the centre of the largest United Methodist congregation in America.

Trump carried this state easily in 2024, and a year ago no one thought it would be in play in the midterms. But Republican Senator Jon Husted now finds himself in a dead heat with Democrat Sherrod Brown, who is trying to reclaim his old job after representing Ohio in the Senate for many years before losing his seat.

The Ohio race pits Jon Husted (L), who replaced JD Vance, against Sherrod Brown (R), who is seeking a comeback

Husted was appointed in 2025 to the Senate seat left vacant by Vice-President JD Vance and is now running to complete the rest of Vance's term.

He says he will use his business background to create jobs and growth in Ohio.

In another election cycle, he would likely be favoured in this former swing state, which has become reliably Republican in the Trump era.

But Husted faces a serious challenge from Brown, who has strong name recognition after three decades representing Ohio in Congress.

Brown is known as a defender of workers and was promoting economic populist ideas long before many in his party.

The race is effectively a verdict on Trump's economic agenda, especially his trade wars, which have affected the manufacturing and auto sectors that are central to Ohio's economy.

Husted, 59, grew up in a foster home and worked in business before entering politics; he was an elite college football player, and Trump has repeatedly praised his physique at rallies. Brown, 73, was drawn into political activism at a young age and was recruited into local politics before graduating from Yale.