Uzbek Soum Gains More Than 1% Since Late July

The Uzbek soum has appreciated by over 1% since late July, reaching 11,881 per U.S. dollar as of August 6, 2026. This marks a 1.04% increase since the last assessment, according to Alpari analyst Anna Bodrova. In July, the currency experienced a 0.69% depreciation against the dollar, though its value has stayed largely consistent since the start of the year.

Bodrova highlighted that a significant influence on the foreign exchange market was the absence of gold exports in June 2026. Consequently, gold exports for the first six months of the year stood at US$1.5 billion, matching the January-May total. This represents a nearly 77% decrease compared to the same period last year, with gold's contribution to total exports dropping from 37% to under 10%.

The analyst noted that this reduction in gold exports has intensified pressure on the nation's foreign currency inflows, even as foreign trade saw a 7.4% year-on-year increase. In this environment, the soum has become more reliant on alternative sources of foreign currency and more susceptible to shifts in the global economic landscape.

Bodrova also attributed the national currency's resilience to ongoing stringent monetary policies. The Central Bank's benchmark rate remains at 14%, which bolsters the appeal of soum-denominated assets and promotes domestic savings. Concurrently, sustained economic expansion has maintained internal demand, partially mitigating the impact of reduced export earnings.

Nevertheless, the analyst identified persistent risks for the soum. These encompass its reliance on portfolio investment and external funding amidst diminished foreign currency inflows, the potential for increased imported inflation due to rising energy and logistics expenses, and the prospect of more restrictive global financial conditions.

For the upcoming week in August, Bodrova projects the U.S. dollar/Uzbek soum exchange rate to fluctuate between 11,800 and 12,050 soums per dollar.