Michigan to decide bitter Senate Democratic primary in test for divided party
Moderate congresswoman Haley Stevens faces a stiff challenge from left-wing outsider Abdul El-Sayed.
Michigan is poised to decide a contentious Democratic Senate primary, a contest that highlights the deep divisions within the party. The showdown pits Haley Stevens, a four-term congresswoman backed by the establishment, against Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive insurgent. This primary will reveal the extent of the party's internal rifts regarding its future direction.
Stevens, a moderate lawmaker, is positioning herself as the secure choice, contrasting with El-Sayed, a former public health official on the left, who has tapped into widespread frustration with Washington politics. The outcome of Tuesday's closely watched vote could influence the party's trajectory beyond Michigan, particularly with the November midterm elections approaching.
This open Senate seat is crucial for Democrats in Michigan, a Midwestern state that plays a pivotal role in presidential elections. The seat is currently held by a retiring Democrat, and the party must retain it to gain ground in the Senate and counter Trump's political agenda. Michigan voted for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 but for Trump in 2024.
Polls in the state will be open from 07:00 EDT (12:00 BST) to 20:00 EDT on Tuesday. The primary winner will face Trump ally Mike Rogers in the midterm elections on November 3.
For over a year, Stevens and El-Sayed have presented distinctly different visions for Michigan and the nation.
El-Sayed, 41, the son of Egyptian immigrants, would become the first Muslim senator in the US if elected. He has received endorsements from prominent left-wing figures such as Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and New York City congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. El-Sayed's campaign focuses on issues like Medicare for All, taxing billionaires, and abolishing US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
Recent polling indicates that healthcare costs remain a top concern for voters this year, alongside the rising prices of petrol, groceries, and housing. Les Lukacs, a Michigan voter, is supporting El-Sayed due to his affordability platform, particularly his emphasis on health insurance. Lukacs, a long-time Democrat who lacks health insurance, stated he would not vote for Stevens in November if El-Sayed loses the primary. "We can barely afford groceries and gas," he said. "I have to make sacrifices - and healthcare is one of them."
El-Sayed told the BBC that if the Democratic Party prioritized everyday people more, "they'd be fighting on the same policies I'm fighting for." Despite his left-leaning stances, El-Sayed is not a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) wing of the party and considers the socialist label unhelpful. However, he draws inspiration from democratic socialist colleagues, notably New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, whose social media skills and focus on affordability contributed to his victory last year.
While left-wing Democrats have achieved several primary victories this summer, including in Colorado, it remains uncertain if they can win back disillusioned working-class voters who supported Trump in 2024.
Stevens represents a more pragmatic, centrist Democratic platform that party leaders hope will appeal to undecided voters. Colleen Houlihan, a 74-year-old from Ferndale, Michigan, who is likely to vote for Stevens, told the BBC, "This may not be the moment for progressives." She added, "I want radical change in the country, but we've got to start with this administration and it's got to be an electable candidate to get power back in sane hands."
Stevens, 43, has presented herself as the more experienced and electable candidate. She has secured endorsements from Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and outgoing Senator Gary Peters. Stevens' campaign pledges to protect manufacturing jobs in Michigan. She also asserts her superior ability to challenge Rogers in the general election, arguing that El-Sayed's left-wing positions would weaken him as an opponent.
A spokesperson for Stevens' campaign informed the BBC that the congresswoman would "fight for all Michiganders from every zip code to lower costs, protect manufacturing jobs, and take on Donald Trump's corruption and abuses of power." She has also gained attention for her strong Midwestern accent, which has become a significant talking point in the race. At a campaign rally, she addressed the internet memes about her voice, calling those who dissect it "coastal elites." "Let's be real. They're making fun of Michigan," she said. "They're thinking they're better than us."
El-Sayed has also voiced opposition to US involvement in the Middle East, including aid to Israel. Recent polling suggests an increasing number of voters believe the US is overly supportive of its long-time ally Israel following the Iran war. This issue resonates in Michigan, which has the second-largest Arab-American population in the US. El-Sayed has described Israel's actions in Gaza as genocide, a claim Israel denies. He has also highlighted his opponent's connections to Aipac (the American Israel Public Affairs Committee), which has spent nearly $30 million to support Stevens in the race.
Like many moderate Democrats, Stevens is a staunch supporter of Israel and has stated her support for unconditional US aid to Israel. She has also criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which led to a rebuke from him in a CNN interview.
Cedric Erkins, a sheriff's deputy in Auburn Hills, Michigan, who remains undecided, expressed frustration that the US "can afford to send billions overseas" while domestic costs are rising. While the Democratic Party has largely united against Trump's war in Iran, the Israel-Gaza war continues to pose a dilemma for Democrats. Historically, they have relied on votes from both Jewish and Arab communities to win elections, according to Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. "They have to make a choice," he said. "Both sides are trying to make it as painful as possible."