Intelligence: Putin may attack a NATO country in the coming years
Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas said Russia was considering the possibility of striking critical infrastructure in the Baltic states, which he said could involve using Ukrainian drones.
Intelligence: Putin could test NATO resolve by attacking a NATO member in the coming years
According to The Wall Street Journal, American intelligence officials believe that Vladimir Putin could "test NATO's resolve" by launching a limited attack on a NATO member in the next few years. These assumptions are contained in new intelligence reports.
Previously, the United States believed that Putin would not escalate the conflict with NATO while military operations in Ukraine were ongoing. However, now the assessment has changed: analysts believe that the Russian president needs some kind of significant victory, given the lack of significant successes in the Russia-Ukraine war. The WSJ writes that there are concerns that "Putin, cornered, could become even more dangerous."
The range of potential threats considered by intelligence agencies varies, from cyberattacks or sending saboteurs to seize territory to a limited invasion of one of the countries on NATO's eastern flank. The latter scenario is currently considered unlikely, but it is likely to increase over time.
According to American officials, the goal of a potential attack could be to break up the alliance. A large-scale attack would trigger Article 5 of the NATO Charter on collective defense, but the alliance does not have a clear plan of action for cases of hybrid attacks or cyberattacks. For example, Putin may hope that the United States will be able to provide only limited assistance to allies in such a situation.
According to American intelligence, aggressive actions by Russia are likely to occur between the fall of 2026 and 2029.
NATO officials told the WSJ that they "regularly consider and prepare for various scenarios." Alliance spokesman Martin O'Donnell said the alliance continues to demonstrate "restraint and readiness to defend itself when necessary."
Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas recently said Russia was considering the possibility of striking critical infrastructure in the Baltic states. He said Moscow could use captured Ukrainian drones to do so. Kaunas said the aim of the possible attacks would be to undermine trust and support for Ukraine among Western allies. At the same time, he noted that there was no "direct threat" at the moment.