How ransom notes could help catch Nancy Guthrie's kidnapper

Police have made public two ransom notes in the Nancy Guthrie kidnapping case, six months to the day after her abduction, hoping they will lead to the identification of her kidnappers. Nancy Guthrie, mother of US news presenter Savannah Guthrie, was 84 when she vanished from her Arizona residence in January. Her disappearance initiated a months-long investigation that has yielded few apparent leads or suspects.

The question now is how these brief ransom notes could help apprehend Nancy Guthrie's kidnapper or kidnappers. The first note, considered credible, demanded millions of dollars in Bitcoin. The second note claimed Guthrie died shortly after being taken.

While the language in the notes may appear straightforward, police believe the writer's "distinct linguistic characteristics" might be recognizable. Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos stated, "There are a number of pieces of information in these notes that just might jar someone to say 'you know, I've heard that'."

A forensic linguist informed the BBC that it's possible to extract crucial information about an individual from just a few sentences. William Eggington, a retired linguistics professor from Brigham Young University and now a forensic consultant, explained, "It's built upon the premise that we each carry an idiolect, or a word print, of our own that distinguishes our language from others." However, he cautioned that investigators must maintain scientific skepticism when analyzing such notes, especially with limited words, and consider the possibility that the writer might be attempting to disguise their natural writing style.

The ransom notes, with some redacted lines, were released by police on Friday.

The first note, sent to a local TV station on February 2, began: "Hello Savannah, we have your mother Nancy. She is safe but scared. She will be held for ransom and once payment is received she will be released unharmed." Eggington noted that the writer's heavy reliance on passive voice and use of an "if-then" sentence structure suggests at least a high-school level education, possibly with some university exposure.

Later, the note stated: "Once payment is received to the bitcoin address below she will be released within 12 hours of deposit to a safe drop off location back in Tucson. If payment is not recieved [sic] by the last deadline on Monday the 9th at 5PM, she will be killed." Eggington pointed out that the initial correct spelling of "received" followed by an incorrect spelling indicates either a lack of attention to proper spelling or a failure to thoroughly edit the text.

The second ransom note was sent to a local Tucson TV station on February 6.

Four days after the first note, the second arrived: "Guthrie Family, we did not fully grasp the seriousness of her physical condition. We never intended to hurt her, that was not our intention. She perished shortly after she was taken. We believe it was heart related. She is buried in nature now."

Eggington observed that in these lines, the writer is "dehumanising Nancy by talking about her in the third person" and "even putting the blame for her death on her." While local officials cannot verify her death, Eggington noted that by claiming she "perished," the writer avoids accepting responsibility, while using the distinctive phrase "buried in nature." He added that the passage contains restricted, academic-style language, but this might not be the person's natural language, and they could be intentionally writing in a stilted manner to disguise their true voice.

Eggington believes the same person wrote both Guthrie ransom notes, based on the writing style and, specifically, the repeated use of a comma instead of a full stop to separate thoughts that should be distinct sentences.

Earlier this year, the FBI released images of a masked man seen outside Nancy Guthrie's home on the night of her abduction.

Investigators will use these small details to construct an investigative profile of the writer. Eggington explained that once a suspect is identified, either through their profile or a tip from the public, known writings from that individual can be compared to the ransom notes.

Given that six months have passed, Professor Jeffrey Adler, who teaches the history of American crime and violence at the University of Florida, believes it "seems like a stretch" that the suspect will be identified solely based on these notes. Adler noted that "kidnapping is not a common crime," with most cases involving family disputes over child custody. He cited other high-profile American kidnappings, such as Charles Lindbergh's baby in the 1930s and Frank Sinatra's son in the 1960s, where kidnappers had clear motives for ransom.

However, this would not be the first time a suspect was caught based on their writing. In 1996, when authorities agreed to publish the manifesto of Theodore Kaczynski, known as the Unabomber, his brother recognized his writing and came forward to identify him.

In Nancy Guthrie's case, police confirmed they consulted with the family before releasing the notes. Hours later, Savannah Guthrie expressed hope that the notes could lead to her mother's captor: "We are desperate. We need someone to come forward. Someone knows something. Someone suspects something. Someone recognises the writing in the ransom demand notes."